UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit Preview and Picks
The UFC ushers in New Year on Saturday night – the Welterweight Title will be on the line as the Main Event at UFC 195 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Also on the stacked card is a Heavyweight showdown that could determine the next challenger for the strap and three bouts between up-and-coming fighters in the UFC.
It should be a fun night indeed – here is a breakdown of every fight in what promises to be a terrific New Year’s card.
UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit
Date: January 2, 2016
Time: 10 PM ET
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
Broadcast: Pay-per-view, Fox Sports 1, UFC Fight Pass
Updated Sportsbook Bonuses For Today
Main Card (on Pay-Per-View)
Robbie Lawler (26-10): -115 vs. Carlos Condit (30-8): -115
The Welterweight Title fight between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit shouldn’t be short on violence – both men are known for their ability to beat their opponents down as well as an ability to take a shot of their own. Lawler, the current UFC Champ enters off a “Fight of the Night” performance against Rory McDonald – he showed his incredible strength and endurance in that fight and his desire to win at all cost. Condit, the former WEC Champ and former interim UFC Champ arrives having absolutely destroyed Thiago Alves in Brazil.
Both men are brawlers – expect an abundance of strikes from everywhere from both men. Lawler may be the better of the two strikers – his intent with every kick and punch is to absolutely end the fight. He’s mean and isn’t afraid to use his fists, feet, knees and elbows at any time in a bout. Condit on the other hand is a bit more of a cerebral striker – not as vicious as the champ but just as effective nonetheless.
There will be blood in this fight, along with some bruises and maybe even a broken bone or two. Condit’s only chance in my opinion is to get this fight to the mat where he holds an advantage over the Champ. Given Lawler’s strong takedown defense, I think this fight stays on the feet forcing Condit to go toe-to-toe which favors Lawler immensely.
Lawler has won four straight fights ahead of Saturday night while Condit is just 2-3 in his last five overall. I like the Champ to add to his win streak as he lures Condit into his type of match. In a brawl there is no other fighter I would stand behind more than Lawler! Take the Champ in what has all the makings of a Classic!
MMA Betting Pick: Robbie Lawler -115
Stipe Miocic (13-2): -225 vs. Andrei Arlovski (25-10, 1 NC): +175
In the co-main event, the “new school” of Heavyweights meets the “old school” when the athletic, well rounded wrestler/boxer Stipe Miocic meets the resurgent former UFC Champ Andrei Arlovski. Miocic has won four of his last five fights with the only blemish over that span being a very controversial decision to Junior dos Santos while Arlovski has won six straight fights heading into the weekend including wins over Antonio Silva and Frank Mir.
Arlovski will have to hope that this fight remains standing – Miocic has a pretty big edge on the ground. That said Miocic has proven that his stand-up is no joke either. Simply put Miocic is the more well-rounded fighter in this one and should be able to dictate exactly where the bout is to end up. Miocic could end this fight on its feet and he could get the victory because of his work on the ground. Either way I like the new breed to slow the roll of the old guard.
MMA Betting Pick: Stipe Miocic -225
Lorenz Larkin (16-4): +175 vs. Albert Tumenov (16-2): -225
Welterweights with Title aspirations meet in attempt to climb the ladder in the stacked division Saturday when Lorenz Larkin, who holds a victory over Robbie Lawler in Strikeforce, meets 23 year olds up-and-comer Albert Tumenov. Each of these fighters has shown an incredible ability to stop their opponents – my guess is that this fight fails to last the three rounds once again.
Larkin has strung together two straight wins ahead of this fight but before that looked like just an average fighter while Tumenov, a Russian hand-to-hand combat champion rides a four fight win streak into Saturday. Larkin may be the quicker of the two fighters and his counter-punching game will be essential here. But the stalking nature of the tough Russian may just be too much in this one. Look for Tumenov to soften Larkin up and to prove that he may be the next big thing in the Welterweight division.
MMA Betting Pick: Albert Tumenov -225
Diego Brandao (20-10): +175 vs. Brian Ortega (9-0): -225
Two Featherweights looking to establish themselves as top 10 fighters do battle on Saturday when veteran Diego Brandao takes on undefeated prospect Brian Ortega. Ortega has been good in his career but has yet to face anybody the caliber of Brandao.
After a terrible 2014, Brandao has come on of late earning two straight technical knockouts ahead of this fight. Although Ortega’s name is certainly one to keep an eye on, the power and experience of Brandao will likely be too much in this one.
The veteran is on a roll and will like to keep that going on Saturday night. This likely won’t go the distance – Brandao by TKO in this one.
MMA Betting Pick: Diego Brandao +175
Abel Trujillo (12-7): +105 vs. Tony Sims (12-3): -135
In Lightweight action, inconsistent Abel Trujillo takes on up-and-comer Tony Sims in a battle of strikers. Sims is coming off a devastating KO win against Steve Montgomery while Trujillo will be looking to end a losing streak on Saturday night. It is hard to imagine Trujillo finding his way against a confident and powerful Sims.
Trujillo’s is athletic and intimidating for sure but those traits only go so far once the Octagon door closes. Trujillo hasn’t been impressive so far – no reason to think he turns it around Saturday.
MMA Betting Pick: Tony Sims -110
Preliminary Card (on FOX Sports 1)
Michael McDonald (16-3): -550 vs. Masanori Kanehara (25-12-5): +375
MMA Betting Pick: Michael McDonald -550
Kyle Noke (22-7-1): -260 vs. Alex Morono (11-3): +200
MMA Betting Pick: Kyle Noke -260
Justine Kish (4-0): -280 vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-4): +220
MMA Betting Pick: Justine Kish -280
Scott Holtzman (8-0): -165 vs. Drew Dober (15-7): +135
MMA Betting Pick: +135
Preliminary Card (on UFC Fight Pass)
Dustin Poirier (18-4): +170 vs. Joe Duffy (14-1): -210
MMA Betting Pick: Dustin Poirier+170
Joe Soto (15-4): -115 vs. Michinori Tanaka (10-1): -115
MMA Betting Pick: Michinori Tanaka -115
Sheldon Westcott (9-3-1): -165 vs. Edgar Garcia (14-4): +135
MMA Betting Pick: Sheldon Westcott -165