2016 BMW Championship Golf Prediction
Ready to bet this week on the 2016 BMW Championship Odds? The third leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is on tap for this week at Crooked Stick in Carmel, Indiana – home of its share of big events in the past. The top 70 point getters from this past season will tee it up on Crooked Stick’s pat 72, 7.516 yard track looking to remain inside the top 30 in points necessary to qualify for the TOUR Championship in a couple of weeks time.
2016 PGA Playoffs
2016 BMW Championship
When: September 8 – 11, 2016
Where: Crooked Stick – Carmel, Indiana
TV: Golf Channel/NBC
Defending Champion: Jason Day
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2016 BMW Championship Handicapping
Crooked Stick is a long course with fairly small tricky greens – length off the tee will help as will a player’s ability to hit greens – in 2012, six of the top seven finishers ranked inside the top-15 for Driving Distance.
Par 5 scoring, GIR stats and proximity to the hole stats will also be key this week.
So with that in mind who should we be keeping our eye on this week – let’s take a look.
2016 BMW Championship Odds – Favorites:
Rory McIlroy +500
Rory finally broke through for his first win of the year last week – everything finally went right including his putter that was off the charts. He now has three top 5s in his last five tournaments played – certainly peeking ahead of this week.
And then there is the fact that he won this event the last time it was played on this track and the fact that he has already completed the Deutsch Bank/BMW double in his career.
When Rory gets hot there is no better.
Jason Day +750
The World #1 has been OK lately – a T15 at TPC Boston last week is proof of that. He can hit it a ton and once on the green there are few that can match his putting prowess – making him a serious threat this week.
He has never played a competitive round here but based on current form and ability Day will be in the hunt.
Dustin Johnson +800
Has cooled since his dominant stretch in the summer. He has finished T18 and T8 in the first two legs of the Playoffs so far and has the perfect game to emerge this week.
He mashes the ball (second on TOUR in Driving Distance), is tops on TOUR in par 4 scoring and proximity and sits second in adjusted scoring and birdies. This track suits DJ to a tee – my guess is that he is present on the leaderboard all week long.
2016 BMW Championship Odds – Contenders:
Jordan Spieth +1200
I’m still not ready to give up on Spieth – he has been consistent but unspectacular – top 15 finishes in three of his last five starts – no top 10s in either of the first two legs of the playoff however.
His putter has been sagging and bringing him down surprisingly but if anyone can turn that around Spieth is the guy.
Adam Scott +1800
Scott hasn’t missed a cut all year and has been inside the top 20 five times in the last six starts including fourth place finishes in both legs of the Playoff so far.
He has been hitting greens with regularity, has been remarkable tee-to-green and his putter has been OK, He tied for sixth the last time this event was played here – I expect him to at least equal/if not better that result this week.
Patrick Reed +2200
FedEx Cup points leader enters off a T5 at TPC Boston – one week after his incredible win at The Barclays. He is as Hot as they come right now and looks as though no track will slow him down.
He is fourth on TOUR in scrambling and is third in Rounds Under Par – a threat each and every week lately.
Louis Oosthuizen +3300
Has been quiet this year but seems to be improving as the season comes to a close. He was T16 last week after a poor final round – his fifth straight start that he finished inside the top 22.
He tied for 16th the last time the BMW was held here – his emerging putter could be a difference maker this week.
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Will play Crooked Stick for the first time this week and enters off a T15 at TPC Boston – that makes three top 15s in his last four starts.
He is sixth on TOUR in strokes gained: off-the-tee and second in strokes gained: approach-the-green – he like Louis will be depending on his putter to get it done.
2016 BMW Championship Odds – Sleepers (+5000 or higher):
Gary Woodland +5000
We know that Crooked Stick is a bombers course – Woodland fits the track for sure. He has been very good in the first two legs of the Playoff – a T4 and a T15 so far.
Woodland is coming on and an intriguing +5000 this week.
Tony Finau +6600
Sticking with the theme of long hitters – Finau is certainly on the radar. He has finished inside the top 25 three straight starts ahead of this weekend – call it a hunch that he has a good week.
2016 BMW Championship Picks:
The pick this week is Rory McIlroy at +500. Ya, ya I know it’s not exactly going out on a limb but he’s a former winner here with some seriously overdue momentum on his side.
Don’t overthink this one!
My sleeper is Gary Woodland at +5000 – he has been playing very well and my expectation is that his length off the tee is a major help this week.
Golf handicapper DAVE B weighs in each week with his top selections. Including top picks and sleepers!
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