– Last Updated on February 1, 2017 6:51 pm
Superbowl Trends That Matter
You’ve come to the right spot if you’re surfing for Handicapping 2016 Superbowl 50 Gambling Trends! The Big Game is just a few days away and there has not been a lot of line movement lately.
Super Bowl 50 Predictions
Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos
Date: Sunday February 6th
Time: 6:30 PM
Venue: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara
ATS Betting Lines: Carolina -5.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Carolina -200, Denver +170 (Open) (now +185)
NFL Betting Total: 45.5
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Things have pretty much settled at Carolina -6. Now I am expecting fluctuations as kickoff approaches but will it be based on market data or will we suddenly discover something about this matchup, that we have been dissecting for the last two weeks that is meaningful.
If so it could come in the trend data that is available. Here is a sort through some stuff that might be, might be relevant.
Superbowl 50 Gambling Trends
ATS Trends – Panthers
- Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Panthers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
- Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
This is the one that most stands out to me. Much has been made of the fact that the Panthers schedule has not been that daunting this season.
Yes other teams have played more playoff worthy opponents but we can’t kill the Panthers for their schedule the way we can in college football where a program has control.
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This one is simple, they are covering 80% of the time when they are playing “quality competition.
Just keep it in mind.
Panthers Superbowl 50 Gambling Trends
ATS Trends – Panthers
- Panthers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
- Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
- Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 playoff games.
Broncos Superbowl 50 Gambling Trends
ATS Trends – Broncos
- Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
- Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
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The Broncos played a lot of close games this season and this trend is worrisome.
In my opinion it seems to indicate that this team has been breaking hearts all year-long, as soon as they seem to have things figured out and win by more than expected they turn around and make you question their eliteness…if that is a word.
This game they are being discounted pretty significantly already coming off a cover so it will be interesting to see if this one holds true.
Carolina Superbowl 50 Gambling Trends
Total Trends – Panthers
- Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 playoff games.
- Over is 6-0 in Panthers last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games overall.
- Over is 12-3-1 in Panthers last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 6-2 in Panthers last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 15-5-1 in Panthers last 21 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 20-7-1 in Panthers last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
Not much of a surprise that things are shading to the over here. Carolina led the league in points scored, which pretty much nobody saw coming.
This week they are taking on the top defense in the league. Normally you would say that something has to give but the Panthers are not conventional in their personnel or approach so why think something is going to change now.
They also just ripped through two strong defense in the playoffs.
- Over is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Denver Superbowl 50 Gambling Trends
Total Trends – Broncos
- Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 playoff games.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 60-28-2 in Broncos last 90 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Denver has the top defense in the league so there is no surprise that the Under has been a winner.
In looking at these Superbowl 50 Gambling Trends I don’t see a ton to go off of because really it comes down to who you think will win. If that is Denver than it stands to reason that it will be because the defense was strong, they are not going to win 38-33.
If you think Carolina is going to win than the Over seems more likely because it probably means they are having success featuring the unique talents of Newton.
Don’t get caught on that long term trend which I think goes back to include a healthy Manning and even before.
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