Week 1 Free NCAAF Parlay Picks
I’m back again this season and will be providing my best parlay every week of the college football season. I can’t wait for the action to get underway on Saturday and I’m sure you can’t either.
The first few weeks are always slow, but there’s still plenty of value to be had.
Game #1 – Texas Longhorns vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
NCAA Football Point Spread: Notre Dame -9.5
NCAA Football Over/Under: 51 Points
The Fighting Irish open up at home against the Longhorns on Saturday.
Notre Dame opened up as an -8.5 point favorite and have already been bet up to -9.5 points. I would jump on the Fighting Irish now, as this spread will hit 10 points before the weekend.
Texas lost 11 starters from last season and the team is extremely young. I believe it’ll take a few weeks for this team to get ready for primetime – playing ND on the road could be a mess.
The Longhorns offense is going to struggle against a very good Fighting Irish defense.
Charlie Strong has already said he’s going to focus on the run and chewing the clock. I expect to see a heavy dose of Johnathan Gray, but getting the run game going consistently will be tough.
Malik Zaire will be under the spotlight on Saturday, but he has progressed exceptionally well based on reports I’ve seen this summer. Texas has a solid defense, but there are questions.
Replacing their top two tacklers from last season will be tough at linebacker.
However, the Longhorns defense will actually be the strength of the team. The offense is going to have trouble scoring points, especially against top defenses on the road.
Texas have struggled in the opening week historically too.
The Longhorns are 7-17 ATS in the last 24 years on opening week. That trend will continue and I recommend betting on the Fighting Irish to cover the -9.5 points while you still can.
I can guarantee this line will continue moving up as the week progresses.
Texas should score right around 14-17 points in this game, which means the Fighting Irish would only need 24-27 points to cover ATS. That should be easily attainable in the home opener.
NCAA Football Pick: Grab the -9.5 on the Fighting Irish while you can.
Game #2 – Texas State vs. Florida State
NCAA Football Point Spread: Florida State -29
NCAA Football Over/Under: 63.5 Points
I’m a little confused about this game total, but I’m jumping on under 63.5 points.
This is simply a warm-up game for the Seminoles and I don’t expect them to make a huge statement by dropping 50+ points. I expect there to be some missed opportunities.
Plus, Texas State is far from a terrible team. They’re not going to give up and get run over the entire game. This is their biggest game of the season and they’ll be pumped up to play.
Everett Golson has been named the starter for the Seminoles and he brings experience that couldn’t be matched by any of the other QB’s fighting for the starting role.
The Seminoles bring back a solid defense this year and they should have little problem shutting down Texas State. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Bobcats didn’t score a TD on Saturday.
If Texas State can’t crack double-digits – it would mean Florida State needs to drop 50+ points to hit the over and I just don’t see that happening in a game they’ll dominate.
In fact – I think the Seminoles will struggle to cover the huge point spread.
They’ll be in no rush to drop a ton of points in this game and I can see them finishing in the 30’s, while the Bobcats score 3-6 points. Golson will pad his stats early, but FSU will run it a lot.
FSU also lost a few key players this summer and it may take a week or two before the Seminoles are playing at their full capability. This is an ideal game for building team chemistry, though.
NCAA Football Pick: Bet on the under 63.5 points.
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