FREE NFL Pick - Sunday, October 12, 2008

[ProInfoSports.com]

Sunday's FREE NFL Football Pick is shown below.

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PRO INFO SPORTS FREE NFL Football Pick- Sunday, October 12, 2008

Sport / Type: NFL / FREE SELECTION (Week 6)

Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks (4:15 EST)

Prediction: OVER 46

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

Analysis:

The Green Bay Packers head west to face the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. After meeting in the playoffs last season, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks were both expected to contend for division crowns again this season. However, with struggling defenses and banged-up quarterbacks, both teams are currently struggling to get to .500.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will miss some practice this week but is expected to start on Sunday in Seattle. Rodgers, who sprained his shoulder in Week 4's 30-21 loss at Tampa Bay, pleaded with Coach Mike McCarthy to let him play last Sunday against Atlanta. He got his wish and finished 25-for-37 for 313 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, although the effort came up short as the Packers lost 27-24.

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay's defense continues to be struggling after allowing 370 yards of total offense last week. The Packers, who were tied with Seattle for sixth in scoring defense last season (18.2 points per game), now rank 23rd in the league in that same category (25.6 points per game) and 26th in total defense (374.0 yards per game).

Seattle's defense has been even worse than Green Bay's. The Seahawks returned all 11 defensive starters including four Pro Bowlers from last season's unit, but rank 29th in scoring (31.0 points per game) and 27th in total defense (382.3 yards per game).

They allowed the Giants to rush for 254 yards on 36 attempts, and may have trouble slowing down Green Bay's Ryan Grant, who rushed for a franchise playoff record 201 yards and three touchdowns in their January meeting.

Seattle Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck hyper-extended his right knee after being hit on the fourth play from scrimmage against the Giants last week. He limped to the sidelines and finished 11-of-21 for 105 yards and an interception before being relieved late in the third quarter with New York leading 37-6.

The three-time Pro Bowler should be ready to play this week, but wide receiver Deion Branch may miss his fourth game of the season after injuring his heel last Sunday.

We expect the Seattle offense to play much better at home against this Packers defense and we also expect the Packers to find the end zone frequently against this terrible Seahawks “D”.

With Seattle’s ugly loss 44 to 6 last week to the New York Giants are allowing 31 points per game defensively and five of their last seven opponents have all topped the 30-point mark.

On the technical front we know that the Seahawks are 11-0 Over at home off a game in which they had <26 minutes TOP and <13 first downs since 1992. Seattle is 17-4 Over at home off a loss of 14 or more points, 13-2 Over at home off a loss of 21 or more points and 15-3 Over at home after trailing in their last game by 14 or more points at the half.

The Packers are 11-0 Over away after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games, 8-0 Over away when playing with 6 or less days rest, 17-5 Over their last 22 games overall, 7-0 Over away against conference opponents the last two seasons, 13-3 Over when playing with six or less days rest and 11-1 Over after three or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Our Defensive Efficiency Index shows the Packers ranked 19th in the league only forcing their opponents to average 14.19 yards per point. The Seahawks are ranked 28th in the league forcing their opponents to average 11.82 yards per point. This Index does a great job of showing which teams have trouble keeping teams out of the end-zone and both of these teams struggle with that no matter whom they play.

Our Offensive Efficiency Index shows the Packers ranked 5th in the league averaging 12.68 yards per point. The Seahawks are not really that far behind ranked 15th averaging 14.42 yards per point. This Index shows how teams perform overall including not only offensive numbers but special teams, turnover differential and red zone proficiency.

Data base research has uncovered strong technical support for our selection on the “Over” in today’s contest. NFL Teams are 21-3-1 Over within 3 of pick versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. NFL Teams are 42-19-1 Over when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.

NFL Teams are 41-17-3 Over after playing as a 7 or more point underdog. NFL Teams are 20-5 Over as a favorite when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. NFL Teams are 20-4 Over at home after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average on the road. NFL Teams are 23-8 Over within 3 of pick after a straight up loss as a dog. NFL Teams are 22-5 Over within 3 of pick after playing on the road as a dog.

The combination of technical, situational and fundamental factors all lead to an “Over” in today’s contest between the Packers and Seahawks.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Green Bay / Seattle OVER 46

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