FREE MLB Baseball Pick - August 30 2008

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Sport / Type: MLB / FREE SELECTION

Game: New York Mets (Pelfrey) vs. Florida Marlins (Nolasco) 7:10 EST

Prediction: Florida Marlins -113

Grade: ONE-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

Analysis:

The Marlins play host to the New York Mets on Saturday night and are in desperate need of some wins. The Marlins fell further off the pace, trailing the Phillies by five games and the Mets by seven. They were only 1 1/2 games out of first on Aug. 13, but are 5-9 since.

The Marlins like their chances today as the face the Mets Pelfrey who has been horrible against them, going 0-3 with a 10.66 ERA in three starts versus Florida in 2008, failing to reach the fifth inning in each outing. He lasted just 4 2-3 frames against the Marlins on Aug. 10, getting reached for six runs and seven hits in an 8-2 loss.

Florida will hang their hopes on Ricky Nolasco (13-7, 3.62), the club's leader in wins, who looks to earn a third consecutive victory on Saturday evening. During his last two starts he has 21 Ks and just 2 walks and the Marlins are 17-9 in his 26 starts this year, making him MLB's fourth-biggest "money-maker" this season.

He was impressive Sunday, yielding two runs and three hits while fanning 10 batters in 7 1/3 innings of a 5-2 win at Arizona.

Data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to Play Against MLB road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts against opponent starting a pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest, 105-44 SU last five years.

We will back the host here as the Marlins and Nolasco get a much needed win on Saturday night.

GRADED PREDICTION: 1* Florida Marlins -113