FREE NCAA Football Pick - North Texas at Kansas State

[ProInfoSports.com]

PRO INFO SPORTS has kicked off the 2008 College Football season and has a full card of STAR SELECTIONS. We offer a FREE STAR SELECTION below and a recap of our 2-0 Friday.

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Friday, August 29, 2008

8:00 PM EDT

4 STAR SELECTION (3.5% of Bankroll)

RICE -3½ over SMU

The June Jones era kicks off for the Mustangs on Friday when the Mustangs kick off the 2008 season against intrastate and Conference-USA rival Owls.

Jones left the warm, tropical breezes of Hawaii to help SMU climb the C-USA ladder. Having directed the Warriors to lofty heights in recent years, expectations are very high in Dallas although it is fair to say that Jones has his work cut out for him. SMU won just once last season and is currently riding a 10-game losing streak.

Rice wasn’t a whole lot better last season, going 3-9, although all of its victories came in conference play, and included a win over the Mustangs.

At Hawaii, Jones ran the spread offense to near perfection and he plans on doing the same at SMU.

We do expect it to take some time for the players to grasp the concept, especially since he’s starting a freshman QB who was lucky to throw the football a dozen times a game. The Mustangs finished 116th in total defense and 117th in scoring defense last season, so vast improvement is needed across the board.

Rice had an explosive offense last season and it should be more of the same in 2008 thanks to the return of several starters, including QB Chase Clement. The senior rewrote the record books for the Owls last season, throwing for 3,377 yards and 19 TDs while adding another 535 yards and eight scores on the ground. The return of the club's top four receivers, including senior Jarett Dillard, will surely help.

Some will point to SMU’s 1-point loss to Rice late last season and figure the ‘Stangs can keep this one close as well; however, teams looking to avenge a late season loss last year, have been extremely weak at the start of the new season. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:

In Games 1-2, play AGAINST a non-Thursday road underdog of more than 3 points seeking revenge for a SU loss of less than 20 points & ATS loss of 2+ points in the previous matchup from Game 8 on last season vs. an opponent not playing with a rest advantage.

Since 1992, these teams looking for revenge have been sent home empty-handed, going 0-10 SU & ATS.

Also, conference road teams have not been up to the task of starting the season seeking to avenge a defeat in which they put a fair amount of points. This is revealed by another POWER SYSTEM that advises:

In Game 1, play AGAINST a conference road team (not an underdog of more than 16 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss, scoring 25+ points.

This situation has been perfect for over 20 seasons, going 9-0 SU & ATS, smashing the spread by more than 17 ppg on average!

Yet another POWER SYSTEM shows that conference teams seeking revenge for a 1-point defeat from the previous season have instead got blasted in season openers. Specifically, Game 1 non-Sunday conference team seeking revenge for a SU loss of 1-point last season are 0-14 SU & ATS since 1984, losing outright by 19 points and failing to cover by 16 ppg on average.

Rice should be in the driver’s seat here and know how to take care of business against Jones and SMU. The Owls are 5-0 SU & ATS vs. the Mustangs when not an underdog of 8+ points, 5-0-1 ATS at home vs. SMU, and they went 6-0 ATS vs. Hawaii with June Jones as the head coach on the Islands. SMU scored big time with the hiring of Jones, but it will take time for him to put his stamp on the program, as the Owls should be the high-flying bunch here.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: RICE 42 SMU 27

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: RICE 56 SMU 27


Saturday's FREE Money Play

7:05 PM EDT

2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)

KANSAS STATE -26 over North Texas

The Wildcats host the “Mean” Green on Saturday to kickoff the football season for both teams. Kansas State is a big favorite here, as they should be. North Texas is coming off a horrendous season in which the team went just 2-10, and since going 7-5 in 2004, they have simply been have been atrocious, posting a combined 7-28 ledger over the last three years.

Kansas State has suffered through their third losing season in the last four years, posting just a 5-7, but they are poised to get back to a winning campaign in 2008.

North Texas relied heavily on the passing attack last season, but neither Daniel Meager or Giovanni Vizza were very successful. The two signal-callers combined for just 21 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. Vizza returns and will be little more than target practice for K-State.

On defense, North Texas surrendered an eye-popping 45+ points per game and nearly 500 total yards per outing in 2007. They allowed 230 rushing ypg last season and lost three starting linebackers, so that number doesn’t figure to improve any time soon.

The Wildcats were an extremely dangerous offensive unit last year, especially with their passing attack. Josh Freeman threw for 3,300+ yards and 18 TDs. Freeman should have another solid season and we expect him to scorch North Texas here.

Kansas State's main problem this past season came on the defensive side of the football, as the team was abused for nearly 31 ppg, but it should be more than adequate against the Not-So-Mean Green.

The Wildcats simply feast on teams like North Texas, as they are 5-0 SU (+35.8 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+13.9 ppg) as a non-conference home favorite since 2005, including 54-7 SU win over North Texas as a -27' favorite. Meanwhile, North Texas is 0-14 SU (-38.4 ppg) & 0-14 ATS (-13.4 ppg) in non-conference road games vs. opponents not off a SU loss of 40+ points, including last year when they lost at Oklahoma 79-10 as a 41-point dog and 66-7 at Arkansas as a 36-point underdog.

Kansas State will make a statement here, looking to come roaring out of the gates with a stomping of the Mean Green.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KANSAS STATE 47 NORTH TEXAS 13


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