Friday Night Preseason NFL Picks

[ProInfoSports.com]

PRO INFO SPORTS did it again on Thursday NFLX with a 5 STAR SELECTION WINNER. That followed our 4 STAR SELECTION WINNER on ESPN's Monday Night Football. See our latest NFLX STAR SELECTION WINNER below as an example of the information, analysis, and advice PRO INFO SPORTS clients receive on a daily basis.

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Here's Thursday PRO INFO SPORTS NFLX 5 STAR SELECTION WINNER:

August 14, 2008

7:30 PM ET

5 STAR SELECTION (4% of Bankroll)

BUFFALO +2 over Pittsburgh

Week 2 of the NFL preseason starts north of the border when the Bills "host" the Steelers. Toronto is becoming a second home site for Buffalo, as this will be the first of eight preseason and regular season games to be played there over a five-year period.

In addition to entertaining their Canadian fans, the Bills will be seeking to look much sharper than they did in last Saturday's 17-14 loss in Washington. Starting quarterback Trent Edwards had particular trouble getting in rhythm, completing just 1-of-5 passes for 18 yards on the night. Another weak outing for the second-year pro, and another strong showing from backup J.P. Losman could give rise to a quarterback controversy in Western New York. Losman was 7-of-9 for 73 yards and a touchdown pass against the Redskins.

Much more is expected from a unit that finished 30th last year in total yards, and produced a mere 20 touchdowns — the fewest by the Bills in a 16-game season. Edwards acknowledged the offense struggled, but said it was expected from a unit that's learning a new system under first-year coordinator Turk Schonert.

"After two series, it's really hard to judge. It was tough to get into a rhythm," said Edwards, the second-year player who took over the starting job from Losman midway through last season. "Mentally, going into a game knowing you're only playing two series is really hard to play a football game that way."

Edwards and the rest of the first-stringers are scheduled to get more playing time Thursday, which should help them get into a groove. Their poor performance provides us a golden opportunity here to play ON a team hungry off a loss and feeling some pressure. Usually, a loss in the preseason will mean negative press and questions at training camp. This creates a sense of urgency for the coach and players, so generally teams are stronger ATS after a loss, and it intensifies with streaks.

The visiting Steelers, meanwhile, head to Toronto off a 16-10 win over the Eagles last Friday. Tomlin noted the quick start against Philadelphia as the Steelers scored a touchdown to open the game.

"More than anything, I was just pleased with the start," Tomlin said. "I like the way we played from a speed of the game standpoint. I thought the guys played with great energy. I thought some young guys stepped up particularly in special teams."

Just as we look at playing ON teams off a poor preseason performance, the converse is true as well, as we like to play AGAINST a team relaxed off a win and not concerned about another victory. Usually, a win in the preseason allows a coach to feel zero pressure the following week, and he can look at players. Generally, teams are weaker ATS after a win, and it intensifies with streaks. Feeling good about themselves and relaxed off their win over cross-state rival Philadelphia, the Steelers figure to be a bit flat here.

Additionally, the Pittsburgh win did not come without a price, as backup QB Charlie Batch suffered a broken collarbone that will have him on the shelf an estimated 4-6 weeks. In response, the team signed former Jaguars starter Byron Leftwich on Sunday to back starter Ben Roethlisberger. Leftwich has had only three days to get accustomed to the Steelers offense in preparing to make his first on-field appearance in nine months, since playing for Atlanta last season. Tomlin said he expects Leftwich to play extensively despite having only three days of practice with the team.

"They have not spoon-fed me. They have given me it all," Leftwich said, referring to the Steelers offensive playbook. "I wish the game was Saturday instead of Thursday to be honest with you. But there's nothing I can do about that. But it will feel real good to get out there again."

That doesn't exactly sound like a quarterback oozing with confidence. Obviously the Steelers have the QB edge in regards to starters, but the Bills have the advantage for the rest of the way, as Pittsburgh will be going about 3 quarters with a player who's had 3 practices with the team and a rookie.

In looking at some NFLX ATS numbers, we note that Pittsburgh is 3-10 ATS off an underdog SU win, 0-3 ATS as a road favorite, and 0-5 ATS in its first road game.

We've also gained some line value during the week and will be glad to play AGAINST a team with a line move of more than 2 points in its direction when the move is not justified by circumstances.

Perhaps the public is expecting big things from Leftwich in this game, because they can't get enough of the Steelers at betting window. Nearly 8 of 10 bets coming in on this game at monitored sportsbooks are for Pittsburgh, which provides us with the opportunity to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business. The oddsmakers initially made Buffalo a 1-2 point favorite and we should see why when this game is over.

PROJECTED FINAL MARGIN: BUFFALO BY 7 OVER PITTSBURGH

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: BUFFALO 24 PITTSBURGH 21

GAME NOTES: We called for Trent Edwards and the starting Bills offensive unit to step it up here, and they did just that. The Bills QB was 9/11 passing with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. We also noted that the Bills would the have the QB edge with the backups, even with Pittsburgh adding Leftwich. Indeed, the Steelers backup QBs went 11 of 24, while Buffalo's went 5 of 7 through the air.

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