FREE MLB Baseball Picks August 10 2008

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Sport / Type: MLB / FREE SELECTION

Game: Minnesota Twins (Baker) vs. Kansas City Royals (Meche) 2:10 EST

Prediction: UNDER 8.5 (-105)

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

Analysis: Kansas City plays host to the Minnesota Twins on Sunday afternoon for game three of their weekend series.

The Twins will send Scott Baker to the bump with his 7-3 record and 3.86 ERA. He has struggled over his last three outings but the site of the Royals lineup should be a welcome one as he is 4-2 with an ERA of only 2.98 and a WHIP of 0.869. Baker has also seen the "Under" cash at a perfect 7-0 in his seven starts versus the Royals.

The Royals will send starter Gil Meche to the hill with his 10-9 record and 4.11 ERA. Over his last three outings he has been solid posting a 3-0 record and an ERA of only 1.80. Meche is 6-5 versus the Twins but he has also been an "Under" pitcher in this series with a 9-5 Under record. Meche is 21-9 Under when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons (Team's Record).

The Twins are 4-0 Under versus the AL Central and 39-19-2 Under their last 60 during Game Three of a series. The Royals are 38-15-1 Under their last 54 when installed as a home underdog, 11-4 Under their last 15 versus a team with a winning record, 40-19-1 Under when facing a right-handed starter and Meche is 16-6 Under his last 22 as an underdog.

This series has been an "Under" series no matter who takes the hill as they are 36-17-2 Under the last 55 meetings overall. We will also get help from behind home-plate as umpire Bob Davidson is 4-1 Under his last 5 when KC is involved and 16-5-1 Under his last 22 overall from behind home-plate.

Our Pitcher Power Index Ratings have Baker allowing the Royals to score 2.3 runs while Meche gets touched for only 2.9 runs. Our Team Power Index Ratings also signal and "Under" selection in today's contest with a final score of Minnesota 3 and Kansas City 1.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* MINNESOTA / KANSAS CITY UNDER 8.5 (-105)

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