NFLX Free Pro Football Picks - August 9 2008

[ProInfoSports.com]

Enjoy PRO INFO SPORTS FREE NFL Sports Pick below in tonight's Dallas @ San Diego NFL Preseason game.

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10:00 PM ET

2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)

Dallas +3 over SAN DIEGO

"America's Team" will be on road Saturday night when they face the Chargers in the preseason opener for both teams. Dallas will be taking the field following a headline-grabbing offseason. Shortly after the 2007 season, owner Jerry Jones managed to retain offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, who was being courted as head coach by multiple NFL teams. Garrett was given a pay raise and assigned the title of assistant head coach in Big D, moves that are seen as exerting pressure on head coach Wade Phillips.

From a personnel standpoint, Dallas made a splash by trading for troubled cornerback Adam "Pacman" Jones, also drafting running back Felix Jones to push Marion Barber atop the depth chart at that position. Barber and other key starters such as quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Terrell Owens are expected to see only limited time on Saturday, in keeping with first-game-of-preseason tradition; however, it will be quite a bit more than the Chargers' best player, LaDainian Tomlinson, who won't see any action.

Compared to Dallas, San Diego experienced a decidedly tranquil offseason. After finishing 11-5 and advancing to the AFC Championship last January, Norv Turner's club experienced precious little roster or coaching turnover, and is the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC West once again. On the injury front for the Chargers, wideout Vincent Jackson, tight end Antonio Gates, and center Nick Hardwick are among the players who will not see action against Dallas. With "LT" and others out, it gives us the opportunity to play AGAINST a team that will not have key starters playing against an opponent not resting its key players. Some coaches don’t see any need to risk undue injury during the exhibition season to those players whom he already knows will be starters, which is the case for Turner and San Diego.

Wade Phillips should certainly have his team ready to go here, as coaches on the hot seat want to get off to a good start, and Phillips was an assistant in San Diego from 2004-06, installing the team's 3-4 defense. One of our NFLX coaching strategies is to play ON a team with a new head coach or assistant that was previously with his new team’s current opponent. This situation is especially strong if the coach left with a bitter taste in his mouth and/or his new team is an underdog. These coaches know their ex-team and ex-players very well, and if the schemes they left behind are still in tact, they will have a a huge gameplanning edge. While this is Phillips second year in Dallas, he will still be looking to make a stament with his team against San Diego.

Finally, in looking at some numbers, we note that Dallas is 13-3 SU & ATS vs. the AFC, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog vs. the AFC. On the other hand, Norv Turner is an ugly 3-8-2 ATS as an NFLX home favorite and 8-16 ATS overall in his last 6 NFL preseasons. The Chargers haven't fared well in NFLX openers, going 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Game 1s. We look for the 'Boys to make the most of their trip out West here and hold off a listless home team just wanting to avoid any serious injuries.

PROJECTED FINAL MARGIN: DALLAS BY 4 OVER SAN DIEGO

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