NCAAB: Tournament Second Round Trends

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

The 16 games of the second round of the 2008 NCAA Tournament are Saturday & Sunday. CBS will have quadruple header coverage both days. Sportsbook.com will of course have the wagering covered all weekend long. Here are some historical trends to consider.

Overall results point to Round Two as the most likely “upset” round. These are the two days where the Cinderellas really shine. In fact, judging by the trend below, Sunday of opening weekend could be renamed “Upset Sunday”. See if any of these trends can help you in your second round wagering:

General Trends

1. The rate of straight up wins by the better seeds is 18.1% less in the second round than the combined rest of the rounds. (63.8%-81.9%). The better seeds are just 102-58 SU & 72-86 ATS.
2. Back to the subject of Sunday vs. Saturday of opening weekend, 35 of the 58 lower seed wins happen on Sunday. In fact, the worse seeds own a straight up record of 35-45 SU, or 43.8%. They are also 44-36 ATS, 55.0%.
3. The second round, in general, has been a higher scoring round. 74 of 143 (51.7%) totaled games have gone OVER the total, and they have produced 142.4 PPG.

Line placement:

1. Double-digit favorites in the second round are 28-2 SU & 18-12 ATS (60.0%)
2. Underdogs of 5 points or less in Round Two are an incredible 39-25 SU & 42-22 ATS (65.6%)!!!

Seeding Patterns

* The #1, #2, & #3 seeds have a combined record of only 52-62 ATS (45.6%) in the second round.
* The #2 seed’s performance is particularly troubling when facing the #10 seed: 7-10 SU & 5-12 ATS, as opposed to 14-8 SU & 12-10 ATS vs. the #7.
* The #4 seed has had trouble escaping Round Two as well, going 15-16 SU & 11-20 ATS (35.5%).
* The #6 seed owns a 16-12 SU & 17-10-1 ATS (62.9%) record in the second round.
* Still, the #10 & #8 seeds own the best ATS records in this round, with the #10 going 13-5 ATS and the #8 13-7 ATS.