Freddy Wills MLB Prediction Thread

[metsfan1013]

July 23rd, 2009 Free Pick

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Take Tigers @ -115 (2DIMES) (1-5SCALE)
I like this play a lot it will be a 2 Dime Free Play rather than a 1 Dime. Today we have our Hot pitcher in Jarrod Washburn going for the Mariners, but that does not bother me at all. A quick run down of Washburn 3-0 0.66WHIP and 0.79ERA in his last three starts. Pretty impressive and Washburn has been quite consistent this year for the most part, but on the road he has had these bumps where he has allowed 4 or 6 ER in 4 of his last 7 road starts. I think he has one of those games against a lineup that hits lefties extremely well and who Washburn has struggled against in the past. His last 2 road starts here he has 9IP and 15ER. So enough on Washburn now onto his opponent Luke French.

French has 3 starts, which really is not much to go on, but I'm looking at the quality of opponents he has faced which are the Twins in their dome, and the Yankees @ hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. French has been nothing, but solid and in his only home start he pitched his best game going 6.1 IP giving up 6H and 1ER. Seatle struggles to get runs off LHP 4.43 R/9 on the road which is nothing compared to the Tigers who are scoring 8.17 R/9 vs. LHP at home. The Tigers continue to hit lefties and with Magglio Ordonez who I think is ready to turn the corner they will go on a hot streak. Magglio who has struggled all year is just waiting for Carlos Guillen to be healthy and he's going to get hot. Magglio went 2-3 HR and 4RBI in game 1 of this series.

Tigers also have the edge when you look at the important trends here. The Mariners are 17-36 in their L53 games when Washburn is coming off a quality start. To me he's not one to be known to throw back to back quality starts. The Mariners are 1-7 in Washburn's L8 starts as an under dog. Again Vegas is usually right when they pick him as an under dog. The Tigers success against LHP has been there all season they are 14-2 in their L16 overall vs. LH starters.

YTD Thread Record

MLB- 0-0 (0 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

July 24TH, 2009 Free Pick

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Rays vs. Jays (7:05pm et)
Take Under 7.5 Runs -110 1.1DIMES TO WIN 1
One day after they could not get a single man on base against the White Sox Mark Buehrle they will have to face the best RHP in baseball at home. The Rays have had success against Halladay in fact they beat him twice despite Halladay having 15K's in 13IP and giving up 5ER. I really like the under in this game for many reasons including the bullpens that have been excellent in the Last 5 games. Rays = 1.74ERA, Jays = 2.00 ERA.

On the mound for the Rays is Garza who has struggled 6.06ERA last 3 starts, but he has been dominant over his career against the Jays. The Jays have a .247 career average vs. Garza, but Garza 5 starts last year vs. Toronto resulted in a 0.47ERA over 38 innings pitched. He gave up a total of 2 ER over that period. He had a start at the end of June against the Jays in Toronto and all he did was back up his 2008 campaign with 7IP and 1ER. He has struggled with his control but at times he is one of the best RHP in the AL East. I expect him to pitch well against a Blue Jays team that is averaging just .223 in their last 5 vs. RHP.

The Under is 13-3 in Rays last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the under is 13-3 in their last 16 vs. RH starter. The Under is 9-1-2 in the Blue Jays last 12 home games and 22-8 in their last 30 vs. AL East. In the last 39 meetings between the Jays and Rays the under has been successful 28 times!
YTD Thread Record

MLB- 0-1 (-2.0 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

July 27TH, 2009 Free Pick

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Take Under 7.5 Runs (+100) 1-DIME PLAY (1-5SCALE)
Despite how well the Phillies have hit vs. RHP as of late and over their career they will face Danny Harren for the 1st time for some of the key players on this team. Ryan Howard has never faced him as Harren has no pitched against them since 2003 when he was with the Cardinals.

In limited at bats Rollins, Utley, Werth, and Feliz have a combined 5-33 (.151average) against Harren. The line opened up with the Diamondbacks being favored at -130, but has dropped significantly to -112 and I think it is not because Vegas expects Harren to pitch poorly but rather for Cole Hamels to have a great outing. Last night another Phillies lefty went 6.2 IP giving up 0ER.

Cole Hamels in his career is 2-0 12.2IP giving up 3ER vs. the Diamondbacks. He has struggled a bit on the road, but he'll be going up against an offense I think he'll have success against with his change up. Hamels has just 5 BB's in his last 5 starts something I think he'll build on here today facing a team he should be able to beat.

The Under is 10-4 in Harren's last 14 vs. a team with a winning records. A stat I love because it just proves he gets up for big games against winning teams. Expect a pitching duel here today folks.

YTD
MLB- 2-1 (+0.380UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

July 29TH, 2009 Free Pick

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Take Cubs -1.5 -105 (1DIME FREE PLAY) (1-5SCALE)
We are going with the Cubs for our Early Bird Special Play. It will be a free play we've got a pitching mismatch here I believe with Randy Wells going up against Mike Hampton.

Randy Wells has a 3.61ERA at home and a 3.21ERA during the day with a 3-1 record this year. He has faced the Astros before going 6 innings giving up 4H and 0ER 2H came from Carlos Lee who is left without Berkman and 1H came from Berkman who is now on the DL. Despite scoring 11 runs last night I think the Astros are going to struggle with the hole that Berkman has left in the lineup. Houston averages 11 points less during the day in terms of team average than they do at night and the Cubs are 6-1 in Wells' last 7 starts and they are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a LH starter.

Enter Mike Hampton who is starting to get hard. He even got hit hard by the Mets. Astros 0-5 in Hamptons' last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Hampton goes up against one of the better Left hand hitting lineups that feature Ramirez .429 vs. LHP, Bradley .343, Theriot .333, Lee .310, and Johnson .300.

Astros have lost 79% of their road games by more than one run while the Cubs have won 8 games in a row at home by more than 1 run and 74% of their home wins on the season have come by more than 1 run.

YTD
MLB- 3-1 (75%) (+1.480UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

July 31st, 2009 Free Pick

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Take UNDER 8.5 WAS/PIT 2DIME FREE PLAY (1-5SCALE)
After losing my 1st POD last night on the Phillies in 12 chances. I continued my successful free pick run at 27-13 in my last 40 given to you!

Here tonight I'm confident and it will be a larger free pick release than usual. We've got John Lannan vs. Ross Ohlendorf here tonight. The line opened up at -125 in favor of the Nationals. In my opinion there is no reason why this line should go the other way given how Lannan has pitched this year but the line has dropped to -114 despite 55% of the public being on the Nats. Vegas is expecting a close game and it is because of the pitching here tonight.

I can state Lannan's stats as I did in the Pitching report today. He has a 2.70 ERA in his last 5 starts and he's got 1 start vs. Pirates this year going 7 innings and giving up 1ER. He'll face a lineup without Wilson and Sanchez today as this team continues to get weaker and weaker. The Pirates are scoring 0.78 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 and it's going to take them a while to gel and establish a team that can find it's groove again. To me as it stands today the Pirates are the worst team in baseball. However, Vegas is moving the line the other way and it is for no other reason than Ross Ohlendorf. Pirates are 1-7 in their last 8 starts vs. LH starter.

Ohlendorf has the 6-2 record and a 3.39 ERA at home this year including a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 home starts. He faces the Nationals who do have a decent lineup but still on the road they just aren't a good hitting team. Pirates are under 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a losing team as he seems to get most of his quality starts against the bottom half of the MLB.

The Nats are Under 6-0 in their last 6 as favorites -110 to -150 and they are under 18-4-1 with Lannan on 4 days rest. They are under 12-1 in their last 13 overall games as favorites for the Nats, and they are under 7-1 in their last 8 on the road. The Pirates are under 11-2 in their last 13 as a home dog and 8-1 in their last 10 following an off day.

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[metsfan1013]

8/2/09 Free Pick

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Take the Mets -108 1-DIME Free Play
I'm going with the Mets today as my free play they will be facing another RH starter which they have seemed to do fairly well over the last week and a half. It's the lefties they really struggle against. With Big Pelfrey on the mound I expect a third quality start here today.

Pelfrey will have the liberty of not having to face slugger Mark Reynolds who is 2nd in the NL with 29 HR's as he takes a seat on Sunday! Pelfrey has a 3.90 home ERA this year and of his 3 starts vs. ARI he has just 1 at home last year where he went 8 innings and gave up 5H 1ER and 8K's.l The Mets are 8-0 in their last 8 home with Pelfrey on the mound vs. a team with a losing record.

Garland will take the mound for the Dbacks and he has been solid on the road this year. However I expect he'll give up a couple of runs and not get much in return. After all the Dbacks are 0-7 in Garlands last 7 as a road dog. He's coming off a quality start in which his team usually loses in the next game. Dbacks are 2-9 following a quality start from Garland. Let's go with the Mets to keep hitting RH starters.

YTD
MLB- 3-2 (60%) (+0.520UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/3/09 Free Pick

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Take Giants/Astros Under 8 Runs -113 1-Dime Play
Today we go with the under on this game as Matt Cain faces off against Mike Hampton. Cain has a 2.27ERA with a 6-1 record on the road this year which is by far the best road pitcher from any team if you ask me. 85% of the public have jumped on board with the Giants yet the line has dropped from -138 to -128. Why would this happen with such a dominant hurler on the mound and one that has pitched well on the road and against the Astros who are struggling against RH starters?

They are expecting a bounce back performance from Mike Hampton here tonight after giving up 9ER in 4IP in his last start. Giants have a .237 average against Hampton in his career and Hampton has a 2.76 ERA in 2GS with Atlanta against the Giants from 2008. Hampton's biggest problem has been the long ball. He's given up HR in his poor starts. Lucky for him on Monday the Giants are ranked 23rd in the league in HRs. I expect a bounce back start from him tonight.

The Under is 8-1 in Cains last 9 following a quality start and the under is 37-15-2 in the Astros last 54 home starts vs. a RH starter now facing one of the best in the bigs here tonight!

YTD
MLB- 3-3 (50%) (-1.520UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/4/09 Free Pick

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Take Dodgers -120 2-DIME FREE PLAY
We are coming off the loss of a POD last night with the Dodgers as Kershaw could not find the strike zone otherwise we'd be sitting pretty right now, but we are not. Today's free pick is a little bit of a revenge on the Dodgers but only for 2-Dimes a slightly larger Free Play though.

Kuroda will go for the Dodgers and he's off back to back quality starts vs. Cardinals and Marlins of 6IP 2ER in each. The Dodgers are 25-6 at home as favorites -110 to -150 in their last 31. Milwaukee has never faced Kuroda except in relief in which they are 4-15. It will take at least one trip around the line up. However, that is not why I'm going with the Dodgers tonight. The reason is that Milwaukee is now in Game 2 of the series playing on the west coast 2 hours later than they are used to. Ask any player and he will tell you it's not Game 1 that they are tired it is Game 2. Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 road game 2's and with the Dodgers on revenge and the Brewers 2-9 in their last 11 following a win I feel confident that the Dodgers will get it back together tonight against Gallardo.

Gallardo will have to rebound from his only start vs. the Dodgers where he went 5 innings and gave up 5ER. Unfortunately for him I just do not see it happening here. Go with the Dodgers as our free play with confidence!
YTD
MLB- 4-3 (57%) (-.6350UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/5/09 Free Pick

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Take the Cubs -1.5 +100 2-Dime Free Play (1-5 scale)
We continue our free sports pick run now 30-15 in our last 45 releases!

Today we go with the Cubs with Harden on the mound on the road! I mentioned in my hot and cold pitching report today how dominant he has been on the road and against the Reds.

Harden with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts against the Reds and he owns a 2.19 ERA on the road this year. He has been throwing the ball hard and was unhittable in his last appearance 1 start ago against the Reds where he went 6IP gave up just 1H and 1ER. I watched this game and had this game marked on my calendar as a game to check out. Harden has a 2.48 ERA over his last 5 starts overall and he'll face the Reds who have lost 8 straight and have a .188 avg in their last 10 vs. RHP. Oh may I add the Reds collectively have a .118 avg and that's counting Jay Bruce who is on the DL take him out of the picture and they have just a .097 average.

Cubs will face Justin Lehr a journey man minor leagure who at 32 made his first start last week against the Rockies. Lehr was a reliver in 2006 where he posted a 8.62 ERA. Many thought they would never hear from him again, but he has put up solid numbers in the minors and here he is. Just showing you how large the jump is from AAA to the majors is. He won't be up long as he threw just 52 strikes in 97 pitches walking 6 batters and in 5 IP against the Rockies. He was lucky to escape with 3ER on 4H. Don't expect the same luck here as he'll most likely have a "what can I lose attitude" against the Cubs by throwing the ball over the plate and the Cubs will make him pay!

Favorite stat: The Reds have lost 76.6% of their home losses by more than 1 run including 7 of their last 8 on this current home stand.

YTD
MLB- 5-3 (62%) (+1.03 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/6/09 Free Pick

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Take Marlins -135 1 Dime Free Play (1-5scale)
My lowest ranking on a free pick is a 1 dimer I still consider this a strong play considering I have been on the Marlins Game 1 on the run line and then money line last night for my POD both losers! It's been a rough couple of days but I was expecting this. Don't think for one minute that I let an 11 game POD streak go to my head. I'm smarter than that and I know in this business you are only as good as your last win. Clearly I'm not chasing or this would be another POD. Again the hole I thought Nick Johnson would leave in this lineup is not what I thought, but I still think this young team (Nats) will run into issues with a quality starter.

Alright let's break it down on Thursday with a frustrating pitcher Chris Volstad and the reason why this is a premium play. Volstad has solid stuff he can strike hitters out, but struggles with his command. If you don't believe me in two starts against the Nationals this year he has 12 K's in 9.1 IP. Just shows you the capability he has to dominate this Nats lineup, but in those 2 starts he had 9 BB, and only 8 H, but that's 17 base runners he handed out yet he only gave up 4ER. Just imagine if he has command of his fastball. Which he has had in his last start with just 1 BB. In fact in 4 of his last 6 games he's given up 1BB or less, but in between were two 4BB performances and that's what worries me about him and the reason this is not a premium selection. The Marlins are 12-5 in Volstad's last 17 road starts.

On the other side of the ball we have Craig Stammen who really has not impressed me this year. The Marlins collectively are 7-20 and Hanley Ramirez has 2 hits. Ramirez has been solid during day play and the Marlins actually score more runs per game during the day than they do at night. It's not like they don't have a plan for Stammen as I said they faced him before and they were successful. So let's get some of the money back that we lost on the Marlins the last 2 days which was 6 units.

YTD
MLB- 5-4 (-0.97 UNITS)

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