Freddy Wills MLB Prediction Thread

[metsfan1013]

9/16/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.


Take Under 8 runs -110 1.5 Dime Free Play
Two struggling offense face off on Wednesday afternoon and I'm going with the under. Doug Davis is one of the most under rated pitchers in baseball he has a 3.99 ERA with a 7-13 record this year. More importantly is how he has dominated during the day with a 2.28 ERA in 9 starts compared to his 4.85 ERA at night. He has three starts vs. the Padres and he's 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA. He has had 2 starts in San Diego (friendliest pitcher park) from 08-09 and he has not given up a run in 13.2 innings while giving up only 5 hits and striking out 13. Padres at home vs. LHP are hitting just .198 scoring 3.04 runs per 9, but their bullpen has been magnificent with 2.90 ERA. While they may not score runs here today their bullpen will keep them in it with Mujica on the mound.

Mujica mostly out of the bullpen this year will make his second start. He went 4 innings giving up 2 hits and 0 ER vs. the Rockies. Now he faced the Diamondbacks for the first time as a starter. Dbacks have a .200 avg in 25 at bats vs. Mujica. Mujica actually has 81 IP this year and at home he has a 2.85 ERA and 3.33 ERA overall on the season. His 36:11 K:BB ratio at home is very impressive and the Diamondbacks are not exactly lighting up the scoreboards either. Mujica will likely have a limit of 50-75 pitches, but the the bullpen will take over and as I mentioned they have a 2.90 ERA at home against a sub par hitting team I'll take my chances in a low scoring game.

The Under is 12-2-2 for the Dbacks in Davis' L16 starts on grass and L16 overall.
The Under is 9-1-1 L11 vs. RH starters for the Dbacks.
The Under is 8-2-2 in Davis' L12 starts as an underdog.

The Under is 10-1 in the Padres L11 following a loss.
The Under is 6-1 in the Padres L7 overall
The Under is 17-5 L22 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Under is 4-0 L4 meetings.

YTD
MLB- 15-14 (-3.33 UNITS)

****GET FREDDY WILLS PREMIUM PICKS HERE****

[metsfan1013]

9/19/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.

Take Colorado State +3.5 1.1 Dime Free Play
Take Colorado as home dogs up in their own building. They are a tough team to beat in this situation at home and they'll be trying to prove their win over Buffalo was no fluke. Their run defense has been great giving up just 29 yards to Colorado and 58 to Weber State. That is a big key in this game because it fall into the strength of Nevada. If Colorado State can have a third consecutive quality game stopping the run they should win this game at home. Also Nevada's secondary is one of the worst in the nation last year and they did not show any improvements in week 1 against the Fighting Irish. Look for Col. States Rashuan Greer to have some big plays in the running game as well as a receiver. He's a playmaker and torched Weber State for 162 yards on 6 catches. This should open things up for their run game. Weakness of Colorado State has been 3rd down conversions as they are 3 of 22, but QB Grant Stucker should only improve on that today as Nevada gave up 61 plays to Notre Dame and 54 of those plays were on 1st or 2nd down.

YTD
MLB- 15-15 (-4.83 UNITS)

****GET FREDDY WILLS PREMIUM PICKS HERE****

[metsfan1013]

9/22/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.

Take Royals -1.5 +140 (1-Dime Free Play) (1-5 scale)
I'm going with the Royals here behind Zach Greinke. Why not the money line? I don't see value for a 1-unit play on the money line of -155. Plus the way the Royals have been hitting gives me confidence behind Greinke. First thing you want to know is the public is all over the Red Sox at 65% because they are the Red Sox and the Royals are the Royals. However, Red Sox have not faced Greinke since 2007 which gives me reason to believe he will be his dominant self. I really like him to go out there and throw another great game as he is pushing for the Cy Young. Put yourself in his position he may never have another opportunity to win the Cy Young. He wants it and his teammates want to help him get it.

Greinke has a 1-0 record with a .45 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has a 1.80 ERA at night and at home he's 8-3 with a 1.82 ERA. At home he has 126 K's in 108.2 IP. Boston will struggle here tonight trying to make contact with Grenkes' pitches. Boston has been hitting well .302 6.31 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 vs. RHP. However, let the record state that he faced a trio of terrible RHP from the Orioles and then Lenny Dinardo from the Royals last night. The Red Sox are not a dominant road team especially vs. RHP. On the season they are 37-38 and they are scoring just 4.29 runs per 9 vs. RHP. That is 1.38 runs per 9 innings less than their averages vs. LHP and they are hitting 32 points lower in average as well. Along with all that when they lose on the road which has been 38 times and have lost 78.9% of those games by more than 1 run. That is what gives us the advantage here and the value is tremendous at +140! Why do I think the Royals will hit?

Paul Byrd has not been good as much as he has been lucky. He only gave up 3 ER to the Angels after allowing 9 hits in 5.1 IP. On the season he's given up 28 hits in 18.2 IP. This is the type of pitcher he has always been giving up many more hits than innings, but not walking many. This fits perfectly to the type of team the Royals are. They are not patient they are aggressive. They are 28th in BB's and 18th in K's which also means that they make contact with the ball. Last time Byrd faced a team like that which was also on the road was the White Sox. White Sox #18 in BB, and #23 in K's they torched him for 10 hits in 2.1 IP and 7 ER. I look for a similar output here tonight. The Red Sox will turn it over to a bullpen that has a 7.33 ERA in their last 3 and a 6.59 in their last 5.

YTD
MLB- 16-15 (-3.83 UNITS)

****GET FREDDY WILLS PREMIUM PICKS HERE****

[metsfan1013]

9/23/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.

Take Angels -121 (1-Dime Free Play)(1-5 scale
I'm going with the Angels this afternoon not only has Kazmir owned the Yankees with a 1.47 ERA in his last 8 starts but he has pitched great for the Angels since coming over and has 9 of 10 quality starts in his last 10 overall. Yankees have their hands full with Burnett here who has not pitched well and especially during the day where he has a 5.79 ERA compared to his night 3.23 ERA at night. He gave up 4 ER in his last start vs. LAA and has a 4.83 ERA on the road. This is a pitching mis match as it goes right now and the Angels have the guy on the hill here today. Angels also play much better during the day and are scoring nearly a half run more during their day games than at night. Yankees are 7-20 in their last 27 in LA and LAA is 41-14 in game 3's in their last 55. Take the Angels.

YTD
MLB- 17-15 (-2.43 UNITS)

****GET FREDDY WILLS PREMIUM PICKS HERE****

[metsfan1013]

9/24/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.

Take Reds -124 (1.5 Dime Free Play)(1-5 scale)
I like the Reds again today they have scored 32 runs in their last 3 games and we are seeing the team they though they'd have on the field all year healthy. The Pirates are probably the worst day team it's hard to actually dig up their records, but I was able to dig this up. During day play the Pirates average just .236 (.260 @ night) and create just 3.54 runs per 27 outs (4.50 @ night). Reds are pretty much the same at day or night.

It will be a pitching match up of Morton vs. Arroyo and I'm going with the veteran, better hitting, and better bullpen team again here. Before I get into why I'd like to say Morton has impressed me at home and on the road he has been awful. Actually in Pitt he has a 2.76 ERA in 7 game starts. However, he's a young pitcher and during his 3 day starts he has a 16.20 ERA so I'll be playing that angle here today. I actually faced Morton back in high school and it seems as though his control is still not there as he had 4 walks against the Reds the last time these two faced giving up 6 ER on 9/1. As I also mentioned the Reds are hot scoring 32 runs in their last 3 games and I think it continues this afternoon.

Arroyo will take the mound for the Reds and although he too does not pitch necessarily well during day start I don't think he will have to. Plus I don't see the Pirates scoring runs here or anything as they are scoring just 2.52 runs per 9 innings in their last 10 vs. RHP. They are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. RH starter and the Reds are 7-0 in their last 7 match ups. Arroyo is on fire right now and is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his last three starts. He had a start against the Reds early in the year when he went 8 strong innings giving up 0 ER on 4 hits. Reds are 11-1 in their last 12 when an opponent scores 2 runs or less in previous game. Look for Arroyo to take advantage of this trend and the weak offensively challenged Pirates this afternoon.


YTD
MLB- 17-16 (-3.43 UNITS)

****GET FREDDY WILLS PREMIUM PICKS HERE****

[metsfan1013]

9/26/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.

NCAA-F | Sep 26
Texas Tech vs. Houston Texas Tech
+1-109 at 5DIMES > 10h.
Take Texas Tech pk (1.1 Dime Late Night Fix Play)(1-5 scale)
The story here is a C-USA team vs. a Big 12 team. Houston already proved this year it can take down a Big 12 opponent and match them with points. Houston took down Oklahoma State on the road 45-35 and now they are getting a lot of credit in what looks like a line that is way off. No doubt I give it up to Houston and QB Case Keenum, but I think this will be a bigger challenge for them this week, but that is why you schedule the games so that you can get quality wins over big conference opponents. For Houston they did not play last week and although they had extra time to prepare they also will most likely come out rusty and that will be huge at home when Texas Tech scores first and quiets the crowd. For Texas Tech it seems as though their defense has vastly improved as they haven't allowed a 1st half TD on defense. Last week they played Texas where many picked Texas to just beat up on Tech for the Crabtree play last year that forced Texas out of the National Championship game. With all that motivation and playing at home in front of the largest crowd to ever watch a football game in Texas Texas only won by 10 (34-24). Tech was missing a few key players on the defensive line and still gave McCoy troubles getting 2 picks off a couple of deflections. On the other side of the ball they lost Grahm Harrel and Crabtree to the NFL, but they have what I think is a better QB in Taylor Potts. Remember the name I think by the end of the year you will hear a lot about him. Going in many said he had more talent than Harrel and it may just be true as he's got 1281 yards with a 69.5% completion, 12 TD's 4INT's. Look for Tech to get some stops and put up enough to win this game by 10+.

YTD
MLB- 18-16 (-2.26 UNITS)

****GET FREDDY WILLS PREMIUM PICKS HERE****

[metsfan1013]

9/30/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.

Take Twins -113 (1.5 Dime OE play)(1-5 scale)
Coming back with the Twins here as I believe they are the more resilient team. After being shut down by power pitcher Verlander they managed 4 runs late and a run in the bottom of the ninth to fall 6-5. They fought back all game, and this is the type of team you want your money on in all situations at this time of year. They simply believe. This will be their biggest game of the year when they face Eddie Boninne on the other side.

Carl Pavano will make the start for the Twins and he's made 5 starts vs. the Tigers. Tigers are 0-5 when they face Pavano this year. Pavano has a 1.70 ERA against them allowing 34 hits and only 1 BB in 37.1 IP. Also he has not given up a single HR, and the cold weather kept a lot of balls in the ball park last night expect the same to happen tonight. Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. RH starters at home. They were able to get a win in last night against the LHP Duesning who is inexperienced in moments like this much like MR. Bonine will be tonight.

Bonnine is a good control pitcher with an average fastball along with a knuckle and knuckle curve. He's pitched well, but this spot light is just too large for him and I don't think he'll have the confidence as he has struggled vs. the Twins before. EArlier this year he lasted 2.2 IP giving up 7 hits, 2 walks and 2 ER. The damage could have been much worse. I think Pavano at -113 in this situation is a steal!

YTD
MLB- 18-17 (-3.26 UNITS)

****GET FREDDY WILLS PREMIUM PICKS HERE****

[metsfan1013]

10/3/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.

Take Boston College +4 (1.5 Dime Free Play) (1-5 scale)
So close to being 3-1 on free college football picks, but we will tip our caps to Houston for stopping Texas Tech on 4th and goal and then driving the length of the field for the win 29-23.

Saturday we will have our free pick on Boston College as they face the confusing Florida State team that we have seen play well against Miami, and BYU, but terrible against State, and South Florida last weekend. One may say this team is now very motivated after last week's poor offensive showing, but I agree to disagree. BC has a very sound defense and ranks 16th in the country against the pass and is 18th in total defense with their 25th rank against the run. They are also very solid in the red zone and they got a boost last weekend from MLB Mike McLaughlin who helped them take down Wake Forest in OT. The BC team that could not score a point against Clemson is different as they changed some things up against Wake when they started veteran QB David Shinskie who is opening up the running game for the Eagles. Shinskie spent years playing baseball and is 25 years old. The leadership he brings is an intangible that BC has needed. WR Jarvis said, "In the huddle I can feel a different presence. It's a little similar to what I felt with Matt Ryan with their leadership." I absolutely love hearing that from a player as QB is the most important position on the field. Florida State got pushed around last weekend against South Florida and I expect BC to get some pressure. On the other side of the ball for FSU they continue to give up big plays and they rank 115th against the pass. I just don't see a disciplined BC defense giving up many points especially at home. They will limit the Seminoles trips to the red zone with field goals and keep this game within a TD all game lonng.

YTD
MLB- 18-18 (-4.76 UNITS)

****GET FREDDY WILLS PREMIUM PICKS HERE****

[metsfan1013]

10/6/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.

Take Mid-TN +7.5 (buy 1/2 point) -120 1.5 Dime Free Play

Both Mid-Tenn and Troy have identical offenses and I guess that is partially due to the fact that both teams have this one thing in common. Tony Franklin who was in Auburn last year was the offensive coordinator at Troy just 2 years ago is now the offensive coordinator for Middle Tennessee.

So the spread offense has been brought and it has translated to the nations 19th best passing game. Troy also has a good passing game that has really started to click in the last two games and are ranked 18th. Obviously the strength of schedule for these two Sun Belt teams is drastically different than the top teams in the nation which is why the rankings for passing can not be taken seriously.

However, both teams have faced some major competition so far this year. Middle TN in my opinion have faced more challenges with games @ Marylan and @ Clemson early on. The only major test Troy has had was a game against Florida. Other than that they were favorites at Bowling Green week 1 and lost 31-17. So why have they clicked the last two games? I think it might be something to do with UAB ranked 120th in pass defense and Arkansas State ranked 98th.

When they face decent pass defenses they struggle to win the game as they have the 100th ranked rushing game in the nation. Troy will go up against Mid TN who has a better defense as of right now with the 70th ranked pass defense. Troy definitely has more athletes in their front 7, but in my opinion Mid TN has a one dimensional game to prepare for and that's just the passing game from Levi Brown. For Troy they have to prepare for QB Dwight Dasher's passing game and his rushing game. He has 251 rushing yards and although I think the front 7 will take care of his rushing they will have a tough time with his passing as he's thrown 200+ in each of his 4 games including an average of 275 passing yards and 6 TD 2INT. He's faced better pass defenses and I think he's due to have a huge game here. In the last three games he's faced 53rd, 59th, 62nd ranked passing defenses and in game 1 he saw the 11th ranked Clemson where he had his worse game.

Troy with the 104th ranked passing defense is nothing scary unless they can get a pass rush out of their two star Defense Ends. Cameron Sheffield, and Brandon Lang are the best tandem in the Sun Belt and will possess some challenges for Dasher in this game. However, the weakness of this secondary will be Troy's inability to cover the spread here. They have four new guys and this is their most challenging game with the exception of Florida obviously. Mid Tenn was able to over come 4 sacks when they visited Maryland where Dasher had his best game throwing for 324 yards and won the game 32-31.

Expect a similar type game with lots of offense here, but in the end I don't see Troy winning by more than a TD especially when Mid TN has the better running game with Dasher a threat. Despite Mid TN's best RB Tanner being out of the game I still see them as more battle tested and a team to finally overcome Troy in this conference.

YTD
MLB- 19-18 (-3.39 UNITS)

****GET FREDDY WILLS PREMIUM PICKS HERE****

[metsfan1013]

10/6/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.

Take Memphis +2 (1.5 Dime FREE Play)(1-5 scale
Going with Memphis here today this line is way off and it's based on UTEP's offensive explosion at home last week against a solid Houston team. Note they were out gained by 83 yards despite winning by 17. Before this offensive explosion UTEP could barely put together anything on offense in fact they are still ranked 117th overall and they are bad against the pass and rush. Memphis is not much better, but their offensive and defense ranks are slightly better and most of all their pass defense is ranked 62nd. They played Mississippi in game 1 to 17-7 at home before getting blown out. Memphis did the same thing last year they started slow and then they got it together and I think with the need to win they will get it done. Memphis can not fall to 0-3 and despite them being without Bass at QB Memphis has allowed just 6 sacks and Hudgens who will now be back their should be able to pass all over UTEP that gave up up 536 yards last week. UTEP falls under an interesting tredn:

Teams since the 1985 season are 10-29-1 ATS when they are off a home win as dogs while going over now playing vs. conference opponent as an away favorite.

YTD
MLB- 19-19 (-4.89 UNITS)

****GET FREDDY WILLS PREMIUM PICKS HERE****