Freddy Wills MLB Prediction Thread

[metsfan1013]

8/25/09 Free Pick

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Take the Dbacks +115 1-Dime Play
We are going with the dog in this situation. The Giants have got to be just crushing after their sweep by the Rockies to really drop them out of this Wild Card race. The Rockies won in extra innings on a walk off grand slam by the Rockies. Now they have to face Dan Harren who they have always struggled against at home.

Harren goes for the Dbacks coming off one of his worst starts of the year giving up 6 ER to the Phillies on 3HR. Actually Harren has given up 9 HR in his last 6 starts that have seen his ERA rise a bit. Fortunately for him he has a 1.33 ERA in his last 4 starts vs. the Giants three of which came in San Francisco. I don't see HR's hurting him here today as the Giants are #29 in the league with HR's at 87. AT&T park is also at the bottom of the league (24th) in HR allowed this year which makes a good chance for Harren to not give up a HR for the first time in 7 games. I also like the Diamondbacks bullpen to close a game out here which is something the Rockies have not been able to do as of late. Dbacks BP last 10 games is 3.34ERA while the Giants have a 5.17ERA over their last 10. They will send Matt Cain to the mound which is why we are getting such great value here.

Cain ha 2 starts both at ARI this year and he's gone 13.1 IP given up 5 ER on 10H but the 9 BB is what is troublesome. I do think he will pitch well enough to win the game, but the Diamondbacks who are #13 in taking walks will get him out of the game early leading to another bullpen disaster for the Giants.

YTD
MLB- 11-8 (+.243 UNITS) or $243!

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[metsfan1013]

8/27/09 Free Pick

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Take Under Cardinals/Astros 7.5 runs -106
We are taking the under here today as Carpenter has been nothing but money during the day. He has two great starts against the Astros going a total of 17 IP 16H 3 ER and 10K's both games were under the total with a 4 run game and a 7 R game. Houston has struggled to score runs as of late with a .218 avg and 3.12 R/9 vs. RHP in their last 10 and the bullpen for the Cards has been solid at 1.88 ERA in their last 10.

Cardinals face Moehler who has also been solid with 2 GS against the Cardinals and 2 unders. 7R game and a 5R game. He has 13 IP 13H and 10K's with 4 ER. The Astros bullpen also solid with a 1.74 ERA in their last 10. Moehler actually has 4 straight quality starts against the CArdinals.

Astros and Cardinals are under 20-6-1 in their last 27 mettings with each other. Astros are u 5-0 in their last 5 as an under dog 6-1 last 7 vs. RH starter and 4-1 in Moehlers last 5 vs. STL. While the Cardinals are under 12-3-1 last 16 at home vs. a losing team, 7-0 in Carpenters last 7 vs. a losing team and 19-5 in Carpenters last 24 home games as a favorite -201 or greater.

YTD
MLB- 11-9 (-.757 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/28/09 Free Pick

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Take Braves -116 2-Dime OE Free Play
Oddsline Error Play here with the Braves tonight when they throw Tommy Hanson up against Pedro Martinez. In my opinion the wrong team is favored here when you consider that Hanson's worst starts were 6 and 5 IP allowing 4 ER and that was vs. the Dodgers and at the Rockies. Those are quality starts for Pedro Martinez at this point in his career. So to see the Braves lose here we would have to have two things happen and I don't think they will considering that the Braves have a good history vs. Pedro.

In 2 starts vs. the Braves last year Pedro went 13IP gave up 16H and 8ER 13K's with 4 BB. Atlanta is hitting RHP pretty well right now and they are 5-0 in their last 5 games with Hanson on the hill as a favorite -110 to -150. The Phillies are hitting just .222 in their last 5 vs. RHP and they have not been that great at home this year so I'm confident with Hanson on the mound facing the Phillies who will take at least one trip through to get a hang of Hanson and by then Pedro might be in trouble.

YTD
MLB- 12-9 (+.250 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/31/09 Free Pick

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Take Marlins -146 2-Dime Free Play
Take Marlins tonight against the Braves. The story line here was Tim Hudson making his season debut, but his start is pushed back to tomorrow due to the roster expansion that happens tomorrow which will allow them to make the transition much easier.

Making the start for the Braves will be Kawakami who has been effective all year long, but against the Marlins he has struggled in two starts posting 10.2 IP giving up 12H 10 ER including 4 HR. Making a road start here against the Marlins who will be throwing their ace out there in Josh Johnson.

Johnson has been Cy Young material all year long and at home he's 7-1 with a 2.26 ERA. He has one start this year against the Braves and it was a 6-3 win. He threw 6 innings gave up 8H and 3 ER. However, the Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. RH starter and the Marlins are 18-6 in their last 24 vs. RH starters. Marlins are also 12-1 with Johnson on the hill vs. a team with a winning record and they are 5-1 in Johnson's last 6 starts vs. the Braves.

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MLB- 12-10 (-1.75 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

9/1/09 Free Pick

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Take Cubbies -1.5 +118 1-Dime Play (1-5scale)
We are going with the Cubs on the run line with great value here today. Moehler has been pretty consistent and on the road he's 5-3 with a 4.35 ERA, but vs. the Cubs it's a totally different story with 3 starts this year and 9.2 IP with 15 ER. The Cubs have a collective .313 average vs. Moehler including Lee .412 w/3HR. To be honest the Astros have struggled to put up runs and although they scored 5 yesterday I think they face Wells in a tougher match up for them. Wells has yet to allow a run to the Astros in two starts this year vs. the Astros and the Astros are hitting .239 scoring 3.35 runs per 9 innings in their last 10 games. The Astros bullpen is 6.84 in their last 3 so advantage Cubs there too. 8 of the 9 Cubs wins over the Astros this year have come via more than 1 run and the Cubs are 9-1 in Wells' last 10 as a favorite. I like Wells to bounce back from his last outing he was unable to locate his sinker so he threw some pitches he normally has not. Wells said he figured out his problems and should be back to his usual self here tonight.

YTD
MLB- 12-11 (-3.75 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

9/2/09 Free Pick

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Nationals/Padres Under 8 -107 1-Dime (1-5scale)
Going with the under here as two decent pitchers go with two struggling offenses in a nice big ball park. Correia pitches for the Padres against the Nationals John Lannan in what will be a day start at 3:40 local time and 6:40 on the east coast.

Correia has not pitched better during the day (4.93ERA) but he goes up against a Nationals offense that is just depleted without Nyjer Morgan (0-5 since being out). They have scored a whopping total of 9 runs in their last 5 games while he has been out. Now Christian Guzman arguably their best pure hitter is going to be out for a couple of games. The Nats are hitting .220 and scoring 3.34 runs per 9 vs. RHP in their last 10 games. And the Padres bullpen has just been spectacular this year so I can easily see Correia pitching into the 7th of quality baseball and then the Padres bullpen closing this one out.

Lannan will go for the Nats and he's no slouch with a 3.86 ERA during day starts this year. He has a solid career vs. the Padres over his career with 4 ER in 21 IP on 14H and 7 BB over his career. He had a great start in late July against the Padres going 8 innings giving up 5 hits and 1 ER. The Padres though have been hitting better as of late face a tough pitcher here today and at home they have really struggled vs. LHP. They own a .193 average and are scoring 2.93 runs per 9 innings at home this year. You read that stat an average under .200 for the year in their home ball park. Lannan has struggled as of late due to the long ball 3HR in his last 3 starts should feel comfortable pitching in San Diego the most friendly pitching park.

WAS is under 10-1 in Lannan's last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in previous game, and they are under 20-7-2 in Lannan's last 29 on 4 days rest. While SD is under 9-3 in their last 12 as a home favorite -110 to -150. The under is 23-7-3 in the last 33 meetings in SD... Take the Under.

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MLB- 13-11 (-2.57 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

9/3/09 Free Pick

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Take Cubs -1.5 +115 1-Dime Play
Take the Cubs during the day game here on the run line. It's plain and simple if the Cubs played during the day this year they would have wont he division. They have won 80% of their home wins by more than 1 run including 17 straight! The Whitesox visit here today with Torres on the mound who in two starts has allowed twice as many runners as innings pitched (9.1). Dempster has not pitched extremely well, but he'll go at home and during the day two spots he has pitched better as well as he'll be on a bounce back start which should motivate him more.

Dempster who gave up 4 ER in his last start will have the day start as well as the liberty of facing a struggling offense in the White Sox who are hitting just .186 in their last 5 and .218 in their last 10 vs. RHP. They are also scoring just 2.25 R/9 and 3.76 r/9 vs. RHP in their last 5 and 10 games. All along their bullpen has been terrible and really has fallen apart on them in August. In their last 10 games they have a 7.36 ERA. With Torres on the mound they are going to need that bullpen and I fear it could fall apart on them big time here. Cubs on the other hand has a 0ERA from their bullpen in the last 5 and 2.70 in their last 10 so expect them to shut down the White Sox here today.

The White Sox are 4-17 in their last 28 as a road dog and the Cubs are 15-3 when Dempster pitches at home with the total 9-10.5. White Sox are also 0-4 in their last 4 overall vs. RH starter and 7-21 overall in their last 28 on the road including a recent 2-8 stretch that they are in.

YTD
MLB- 14-11 (-1.63 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

9/8/09 Free Pick

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9/3/09 Free Pick

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Take Cubs -1.5 +115 1-Dime Play
Take the Cubs during the day game here on the run line. It's plain and simple if the Cubs played during the day this year they would have wont he division. They have won 80% of their home wins by more than 1 run including 17 straight! The Whitesox visit here today with Torres on the mound who in two starts has allowed twice as many runners as innings pitched (9.1). Dempster has not pitched extremely well, but he'll go at home and during the day two spots he has pitched better as well as he'll be on a bounce back start which should motivate him more.

Dempster who gave up 4 ER in his last start will have the day start as well as the liberty of facing a struggling offense in the White Sox who are hitting just .186 in their last 5 and .218 in their last 10 vs. RHP. They are also scoring just 2.25 R/9 and 3.76 r/9 vs. RHP in their last 5 and 10 games. All along their bullpen has been terrible and really has fallen apart on them in August. In their last 10 games they have a 7.36 ERA. With Torres on the mound they are going to need that bullpen and I fear it could fall apart on them big time here. Cubs on the other hand has a 0ERA from their bullpen in the last 5 and 2.70 in their last 10 so expect them to shut down the White Sox here today.

The White Sox are 4-17 in their last 28 as a road dog and the Cubs are 15-3 when Dempster pitches at home with the total 9-10.5. White Sox are also 0-4 in their last 4 overall vs. RH starter and 7-21 overall in their last 28 on the road including a recent 2-8 stretch that they are in.

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MLB- 14-11 (-1.63 UNITS)

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MLB- 14-12 (-2.63 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

9/11/09 Free Pick

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Take Air Force +3.5 1-Dime Free Play (1-5 scale)
Going with Air Force on Saturday in a match up that will take place in Minnesota's new home which is state of the art. Why am I on Air Force if Minnesota is going to be pumped up for this one? Well for one thing just because you are supposed to win a game does not mean you are going to.. we have all learned that many times! In this game I believe Minnesota will struggle with the triple option that Air Force runs and they might be already looking ahead to California who they face next. Air Force did put up 72 points against Nichols State, but none the less it was a tune up and Minnesota looked bad against Syracuse and should have lost the game. Paulus looked very mobile against the Minnesota front line, and if they can't make Paulus look bad then I believe Tim Jefferson will have a field day and do whatever he wants although he does not pass much. I like Air Force to be able to run the ball well which is what happens in the triple option when you have a team that is over aggressive and with the adrenalin in for Minnesota because of it being the first game in their new stadium look for Air Force to quiet the crowd once again early. Air Force is 16-8 ATS in their last 2 years under Calhoun.

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MLB- 15-12 (-0.23 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

9/15/09 Free Pick

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Rays -134 2-Dime Free Pick (1-5 Scale)
Coming off another POD winner I'm now 23-5 in my last 28 and 101-45 on the year! Our free picks have made profits too! Tonight we come with a rare 2-Dime Free Pick! It's an Oddsline Error because Vegas is still thinking the Rays are the team that just went 0-11. Like I said before this is the same team that just had a tough schedule and lost their best HR hitter. Now that they are back to playing regular sub-par teams from the division they are back on track, but still getting a lot of value. Tonight they will have their soon to be rookie of the year pitcher on the mound in Jeff Niemann.

Niemann has a 1.66 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP but nothing to show for it and I think he will be going for it here tonight against the Orioles who he pitched 7.1 innings giving up 7 hits and 1 ER the last time out. Niemann has great value here as well because of his first start against Baltimore this year and he went 5.1 innings gave up 6 hits and 6 ER. However, this was his first start of the year from switching over from the bullpen. He had two starts after that only allowing a total of 3 ER vs. the Orioles and has gotten better in each start. I expect that to happen yet again here tonight and I think the offense will get runs tonight against the pitching staff that will throw Berken out there.

Berken has pitched well as of late, but at home overall he his team is just 3-8 and he has a 1.69 WHIP. Berken has 1 start against the Rays and he went 5.2 innings gave up 11 hits and 5 ER with 3HR. Judging by the number of hits it seems as though it could have been much worse and it just may be tonight. Regardless I don't see this going deep into the game which means the bullpen will have to take over and that's a scary thought. Bullpen has a 7.64 ERA in their last 10 games.

Rays have dominated game 2's of series going 32-14 this year including 16-7 on the road! They are 12-3 in their last 15 as a favorite whiel the Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 with Berken as a dog. Rays also 26-9 in their last 35 meetings with the O's

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MLB- 15-13 (-1.33 UNITS)

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