Freddy Wills MLB Prediction Thread

[metsfan1013]

8/7/09 Free Pick

You can find all of Freddy Wills premium picks right here on Cappers Picks by clicking here.

Take Giants -1.5 -135 2DIME FREE (1-5SCALE)
Okay we've got Lincecum vs. Bailey and I'm very confident in this play it is not a premium play because I like a lot of other plays on the card today so stay tuned! Giants are 37-16 at home winning 78.4% of their wins by more than 1 run. Now is the time to strike with the run line as the Giants still have this image of being offensively challenged, but I disagree and the addition of Freddy Sanchez has sparked this club. The Giants are averaging .324 and 5.81 runs per 9 innings vs. RHP. Giants over last 10 .308 and 5.19/9.

Better yet Lincecum on the mound with a 1.64 ERA over last 3 starts and has a 1.92 ERA at home. Lincecum has a 1.92 ERA at home and a 0.89ERA over his last 4 home starts and the Reds have never faced him.. The Reds who have struggled offensively won't get much help here today as they are batting .193 against RHP and are scoring just 3.43 runs per 9 over their last 10. They send Bailey to the mound where the Reds are 1-10 in his last 11 as a dog. He has the 8.22 ERA over his last three starts and the Reds are 22-31 on the road losing 80.6% of those road losses by 1+ run.

Last stat, the Giants are just 14-8 in Lincecum starts this year if you followed him you haven't made much money however if you played the run line you cashed in as Lincecum and the Giants have won by more than 1 run in 13 of his 14 team wins.

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MLB- 5-5 (-1.97 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/11/09 Free Pick

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Take Padres +126 1-Dime Free
We are catching a lot of value here today with the Padres facing off against the struggling Brewers. Brewers are now sliding down the wild card standings and are in jeopardy of not going to the post season.

Padres on the other hand are playing great baseball and in my opinion the reason is no other than the return of David Eckstein. While Eckstein was out the Padres were 3-16. Since his return they are now an amazing 9-4. It just can't be a coincidence. Eckstein is the type of player that will take pitches and make an opposing pitcher work. Something that has paid off for him and the Padres since his return.

Along with that we've got the young kid Clayton Richard starting against the Brewers for a third time. In two starts he has gone 10.2 IP and given up just 1 ER 6H and 6BB. He needs to improve his control, but he has good stuff and should be able to put up a quality start against the Brewers who are struggling against left handed pitchers. Brewers hitting .217 and scoring 3.38/9 vs. LHP over their last 5 and they are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. left handed starters.

Looper will take the mound for the Padres and has struggled over his career vs. San Diego. He faced them and gave up 10H and 6ER less than 2 weeks ago and over his last 3 starts vs. Padres he's gone just 13 innings and has given up 15ER with 5HR. Padres are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. RH starters and are hitting .314 and scoring 6.15 runs per 9 innings vs. RHP in their last 5. Padres have a .316 career average vs. Looper including Adrian Gonzalez who is 6-15.

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MLB- 5-5 (-2.97 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/12/09 Free Pick

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Take Cardinals -1.5 @ -150 2Dime Free (1-5 Scale)
We are going with the Cardinals on the run line here today and it is based on Chris Carpenter. We have hit a bit of a slide on our premium plays as of late, but I think it is mostly do with the kind of plays that have been available. Vegas has gotten much sharper on the favorites and if you pay attention you will start to see many more games at -200 or -300 even that you were not seeing earlier in the year.

Onto today's free play. Cardinals are 21-2 in Carpenter's last 23 starts at -201 or better. Today is his highest spread ever at -300 now moving even higher. This year he is 4-0 while being at -201 and has a 1.40 ERA over 4 starts. 3 of the 4 were wins by more than 1 run and I'm expecting the same here today given the Reds starter and their offensive struggles particularly against Carpenter. Collectively the Reds have a .189 average with nobody hitting over .214 that has more than 10 AB. Cardinals are 40-12 in Carpenters last 52 home starts while his opponents (Reds) are 3-14 in Homer Bailey's last 17 starts overall.

Bailey will make the start and although the Cardinals have just 46 AB vs. the RHP they have made the best of them with a .326 average and winning all three of his starts by more than 1 run. Bailey should have a lot of trouble with the line up that has improved with their pre-trade deadline acquisitions. Bailey with a 7.12 ERA in 9 starts this year has a 7.32 ERA on the road. I see him struggling here against a Cardinal lineup that is hitting .295 against RHP in their last 10 games.

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MLB- 6-5 (-1.71 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/12/09 Free Pick

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Take Phillies -135 (1DIME)
Going with the Phillies here as they hit 3HR last night on there way to an easy victory. They started to feel the pressure from the Marlins and are now going to go on a roll in my opinion. Cliff Lee has been brilliant and has a 1.12 ERA in his last three starts. Phillies like the Cubs are a better day team hitting wise and should have the advantage against Ryan Dempster who struggles when he gives up the long ball. Wrigley field has given up the 6th most HR's this year which is the reason for his 4.62 ERA at home. The Phillies are #3 in MLB in HR and #1 in the National League. Some of the Phillie hitters have great numbers vs. Dempster so I expect that to continue. Cubs are 1-10 following a quality start from Dempster. Look for the Phillies to capitalize on their success from the last time they faced Dempster in August last year he went 6 innings gave up 8 H and 4ER with 4BB.

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MLB- 7-5 (-0.38 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/14/09 Free Pick

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Take Astros +120 1-Dime Play
We get great value and that's because the Astros are traveling tonight from Florida to Milwaukee. I don't mind this as they pick up an extra hour of sleep on the way and it's been a known fact that they normally do not feel this kind of a trip until game 2.

Astros will throw their best starter out there on Friday and he is turning into a flat out ace in front of our eyes. His struggles have always been road starts and he's still not getting respect here as a road under dog despite having a 3.1 ERA on the road this year including a 1.16 ERA in his last 5 road starts. I don't mind backing him here again as an underdog against the Brewers who are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. LH starter and are batting only .217 vs. LHP scoring 4.13 in their last 10 games. As mentioned in today's article Wandy Rodriguez won't have to face two hitters in Hart and Weeks who usually hit him pretty well, Hart (11-27) and Weeks (5-16). Astros are 7-3 in Rodriguez's last 10 starts vs. LH starters. In his last 5 starts vs. the Brewers he has a 1.40 ERA. He has plenty of gas throwing just 53 pitches a start ago. Brewers send Gallardo to the mound and he's 1-4 in his last 5 on 4 days rest and as a -110 to -150 favorite.

Gallardo has not thrown the ball well of late well I should not say that he had a terrible outing at LA and had a nice bounce vs. Houston. However, I expect him to slip up here a bit and have a let down enough to capitalize on the Astros who are coming off a 4 games series with the Marlins where they scored 30 runs.

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MLB- 8-5 (+0.361 UNITS) $361

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[metsfan1013]

8/18/09 Free Pick

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Take Rays -1.5 @ -126 2Dime Free Play (1-5 scale)
Off another POD winner and a push in the NFL moving us to 3-0-1 in NFL POD's this pre-season and 3-1 in our last 4 MLB POD's looking like we are coming out of our mini slump.

Here today we go with the Rays in what promises to be a complete pitching mismatch with Jason Berken vs. David Price. Neither one of these pitchers will go deep in the game, but when they leave the game they will be leaving under completely different circumstances.

Berken will face the Rays for the first time and that's too bad as he has a 8.76 ERA in his last three starts and a 8.48 ERA on the road this year. Orioles are 2-12 in Berken's last 14 overall starts and 1-10 when he is an underdog. The last time he completed 7 innings was May 31st. Which almost guarantees the Rays will see the O's bullpen for 2+ innings that has gone down hill since losing their closer to the Dodgers. They have a 6.10 ERA last 10, 7.40 Last 5, and the bullpen available for Tuesday has a 8.15 ERA in their last 3 games. Berken has not been impressive with a 41:29 K:BB ratio which really works to the Rays strengths and weaknesses as they are #3 in taking walks which should push Berken out of this game even earlier and they are #4 in K's which is good since Berken is not a strikeout guy.

David Price going for the Rays has been great at home with a 2.72 ERA and a fabulous 38:18 K:BB ratio. He will go up against the O's who are #18 in HR and #24 in BB which does not pan out well against Price. Orioles have just been awful against LHP on the road this year with a .222 average and are scoring only 2.80 runs per 9 innings. In their last five they are batting .125 and scoring 1.17 runs per 9.

Why it's not a premium play? Plain and simple the Rays have not seen Berken before. What does that mean? It means that he may be able to work quickly through the lineup the first time. When playing run lines I like to know that a team can really beat up on a hitter the first time around. Good luck!

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MLB- 8-6 (-0.639 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/19/09 Free Pick

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Take Yankees -120 for 2 Dime Free Play
Yankees face the lefty Anderson for the third time this season and they send newly acquired Chad Gaudin to the mound for a start against the Athletics on Wednesday night. I'm liking the Yankees to hit Anderson hard as they have a .353 average in his two starts against them. Anderson's line is 12IP 18H 3BB 9 ER and 3HR. As I mentioned the Yankees always hit LHP as they have a stunning .299 average and are scoring 6.69 runs per 9 innings vs. LHP on the road this year. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a LH starter and are 10-2 in their last 12 meetings. I think we are getting great value here with the Yankees at -120 despite Gaudin going if you remember he did throw an 8 inning 1 hitter at Texas when he was with the Padres earlier this year.

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MLB- 8-7 (-2.639 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/20/09 Free Pick

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Take Tigers -158 2Dimes Free (1-5 scale)
We have Washburn going against his old team in the Mariners for the first time since 2005. This should be a great spot for Washburn who finally found his stuff at home in Detroit after struggling in his first two starts he came with a 8 inning performance giving up 3H and 0ER. I look for him to come up with a solid performance as he has a 3-2 record with a 2.98 ERA during the day. What has hurt him in his non-quality starts has been the long ball. Lucky for him he will be facing the Mariners who are ranked 22nd in the league in HRs. The Mariners are only 3-9 in their last 12 vs. LH starter and the Mariners are hitting just .178 and scoring 1.35/9 in their last 5 games vs. LHP.

Ryan Rowland will go for Seattle and he's been solid, but the last time he faced the Tigers he went 5IP 5H 3BB and was fortunate to only give up 1 ER. I really think the Tigers who play significantly better during the day to win this game. They are hitting .31 points higher during the day and are creating .68 more run per 27 outs during the day than at night. Granderson will sit out for rest but that's not a big deal as he's batting just .239 during the day .22 less than his night stats.

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MLB- 9-7 (-0.972 UNITS)

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[metsfan1013]

8/22/09 Free Pick

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Take Pirates -138 2-Dime Free
I backed my boy Charlie Morton last night and he did not dissapoint as the Pirates won for our 7th POD winner in MLB in our last 8. We actually swept the board yesterday with the Rays and the Cowboys as our NFL POD! NFL POD's are off to a solid 4-1-1 start this pre-season and we have a special pre-season package up now contact us for a special 50% off that package!

Tonight Duke who has a 3.31 ERA goes against one of the more weaker line ups specifically against LHP. The Reds are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. LH starters and are only hitting .236 and scoring 3.50 runs per 9 innings on the road vs. LHP this year. It gets worse over their last 10 games vs. LHP they are hitting .160 and scoring 2.43/9 in their last 10 games. Last night I mentioned how the Reds have just been losing on the road they are now 5-20 in their last 25 road games and with umpire Paul Schrieber behind the plate they are 3-13 in his last 16 games.

Reds are throwing journey man Justin Lehr out there. He has looked good in his starts but this is only his second start on the road and i think the Pirates will get enough runs to win this. one!

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MLB- 10-7 (+0.294 UNITS) or $294!

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[metsfan1013]

8/24/09 Free Pick

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Take Blue Jays -130 1.5Dime Free Pick
Okay, Halladay has not been winning mostly due to the run support, but he comes off arguably his worst start going 5IP and giving up 4ER. He has given up 4ER or more 5 times this year and what has he done after that? He's come back with a 2.13 ERA in the 5 starts following combined. His worst start was 7 IP 3 ER following a performance of 4+ ER. I expect much of the same against the Rays who are traveling from Tampa Bay after striking out 15 times yesterday in a 4-0 loss to the Rangers.

Expect Halladay to throw a solid game against the Rays in his 5th start against themt his year. He has 2.10 ERA against TB this year, but TOR is 1-3 in those losses he got 5 total runs of support. He still gives his team a great chance to win and I like the Blue Jays chances at home against Niemann.

Niemann has a 4.42 ERA away compared to his 2.67 ERA at home. BB's and the long ball have been what hurt him. Blue Jays if you remember took Josh Becket deep 3HR just a short while ago so why can't they beat up Niemann here? Blue Jays are #20 in BB, but #7 in HR and Rogers Centre is ranked #7 for most HR hit per game at a ball park. The Rays are struggling in their last 5 games with a .234avg and 3.72 r/0 vs. RHP in their last 5 while the Jays are hitting .293 scoring 4.78 r/9 in their last 5 vs. RHP. Rays are also 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. RH starter now facing the best RH starter in the AL in my opinion.

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MLB- 11-7 (+1.743 UNITS) or $1,743!

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