Michael Alexander's MLB Prediction Thread

[Michael Alexander]

July 6, 2009

Texas Rangers vs. LAA Angels (MLB) - Jul 6, 2009 10:05 PM EDT
Play on Texas w/ Millwood
Play Selected Money Line: 131

Rating: 2 Units

TEXAS is 15-4 (+11.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. TEXAS is 12-5 (+8.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better this season. Playing against any team (LA ANGELS) that scores 4.7 to 5.2 runs/game against a very good starter (ERA<=3.50) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% is 44-21 since 1997

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB- 3-1 (+370 units)

[Michael Alexander]

Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox (MLB) - Jul 7, 2009 8:10 PM EDT

Play Title Play on Chicago w/ Buehrle
Play Selected Money Line: -155

Rating: 2 Units

SOWERS is 2-16 (-13.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons.

BUEHRLE is 60-30 (+23.5 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing since 1997.

CLEVELAND is 9-26 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB- 3-2 (+60 units)

[Michael Alexander]

MLB Free Pick: Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox (MLB) - Jul 8, 2009 7:10 PM EDT
Play on Boston w/ Wakefield

Rating: 2 Units

BOSTON is 84-41 (+20.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. WAKEFIELD is 28-10 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 21-4 (+15.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last 2 seasons.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB- 4-2 (+260 units)

[Michael Alexander]

Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox (MLB) - Jul 9, 2009 2:05 PM EDT

Play Title Play on Chicago w/ Richard
Play Selected Money Line: -121

Rating: 2 Units

Playing on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHI WHITE SOX) with a starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing, hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games is 34-12 over the last 5 seasons

CLEVELAND is 7-17 (-10.3 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season.

CHI WHITE SOX are 20-9 (+12.2 Units) against the money line vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - 5-2 (+460 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) - Jul 10, 2009 8:05 PM EDT
Play Title Play on LA Dodgers w/ Billingsley

Rating: 2 Units

MILWAUKEE is 4-10 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. LA DODGERS are 30-14 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. LA DODGERS are 39-21 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***

YTD Record

MLB - 5-3 (+219 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

Today's Free Pick: MLB : Colorado Rockies -115

Play on Colorado w/ Marquis
Rating: 2 Units

The Colorado Rockies send Jason Marquis to the hill today with an 11-5 mark and 3.61 ERA. Marquis will be looking to set a career-high streak for consecutive scoreless innings He tossed eight innings Monday night against the Washington Nationals. He will also search for a third straight win over Atlanta after allowing one run over eight innings May 18 in a 5-1 win at Turner Field. Marquis has a 2.03 ERA in consecutive wins over the Braves.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - 6-3 (+419 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

LAA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics (MLB) - Jul 16, 2009 10:05 PM EDT
Play Title Play on LAA Angels w/. Santana
Play Selected Money Line: 120

Rating: 2 Units

OAKLAND is 9-28 (-18.3 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

BRADEN is 3-11 (-11.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons.

LA ANGELS are 30-18 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - 6-4 (+189 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

Today's MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT

Play on San Francisco w/ Lincecum
Selected Money Line: San Francisco Giants -155

Rating: 2 Units

PITTSBURGH is 7-30 (-19.1 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 22-8 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. MAHOLM is 1-11 (-11.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 3 seasons.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - 7-4 (+389 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - Jul 18, 2009 10:05 PM EDT

Play Title Play on Colorado w/ Hammel
Play Selected Money Line: -108

Rating: 2 Units

SAN DIEGO is 9-27 (-18.0 Units) against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. COLORADO is 16-6 (+10.2 Units) against the money line after a win by 2 runs or less this season. COLORADO is 13-4 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - 7-5 (+79 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians (MLB) - Jul 19, 2009 1:05 PM EDT

Play Title Play on Seattle w/ Bedard

Rating: 2 Units

CLEVELAND is 5-11 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in home games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games this season. SEATTLE is 14-8 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 21-11 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***



YTD Record

MLB - 7-6 (-127 Units)