Michael Alexander's MLB Prediction Thread

[Michael Alexander]

Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians (MLB) - Aug 11, 2009 7:05 PM EDT

Play on Texas w/ Nippert
Play Selected Money Line: 110

Rating: 2 Units

TEXAS is 11-3 (+9.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 this season. TEXAS is 12-6 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games after 4 or more consecutive road games this season. CLEVELAND is 8-19 (-12.1 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more this season.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - (Free Picks) - 20-15 (+523 Units)
MLB - (Overall) - 75-45 (+1990 Units)
NFLX - (Overall) - 0-0-1

[Michael Alexander]

Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians (MLB) - Aug 12, 2009 7:05 PM EDT

Play on Texas w/ HunterPlay Selected Money Line: -120

Rating: 2 Units

CARMONA is 1-7 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in home games against AL West opponents since 1997. CLEVELAND is 11-20 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. TEXAS is 21-12 (+10.6 Units) against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - (Free Picks) - 20-16 (+323 Units)
MLB - (Overall Picks) - 75-48 (+1390 Units)
NFLX - (Overall) - 0-0-1

[Michael Alexander]

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox (MLB) - Aug 13, 2009 1:35 PM EDT

Play on Boston w/ Buchholz
Play Selected Money Line: -104

Rating: 2 Units

BOSTON is 23-4 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. DETROIT is 3-12 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in road games in the second half of the season this season. BOSTON is 39-15 (+20.3 Units) against the money line against AL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - (Free Picks) - 21-16 (+523 Units)
MLB - (Overall) - 78-48 (+2190 Units)
NFLX - (Overall) - 0-0-1

[Michael Alexander]

San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets (MLB) - Aug 14, 2009 7:10 PM EDT

Play on San Francisco w/. Zito
Play Selected Money Line: -119

Rating: 2 Units

ZITO is 13-5 (+11.2 Units) against the money line against NL East opponents over the last 2 seasons. ZITO is 10-4 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 26-10 (+13.1 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - (Free Picks) - 21-17 (+315 Units)
MLB - (Overall Picks) - 80-50 (+2330 Units)
NFLX - (Overall PIcks) - 1-0-1 (+200 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers (MLB) - Aug 15, 2009 8:05 PM EDT

Play on Texas
Play Selected Money Line: -122

Texas looks to bounceback after last night's 9th inning collapse when they take on the Boston Red Sox in game 2 of their weekend series. Tonight the Rangers send left-hander Derek Holland to the hill. Holland is 5-7 with a 5.04 ERA overall but has been effective since the All Star Break going 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA in five starts.

The Red Sox counter with veteran right-hander Brad Penny. Penny has not been all that impressive this season with a 7-6 makr and rather high 5.16 ERA. Penny has had problems with the Rangers going 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts.

Texas has also feasted on right handed pitching at home this season. I'm taking the Rangers in this one


YTD Record

MLB - (Free Picks) - 21-18 (+77)
MLB - (Overall Picks) - 83-51 (+2896)
NFLX - (Overall Picks) - 2-0-1 (+400)

[Michael Alexander]

Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers (MLB) - Aug 16, 2009 2:05 PM EDT

Play on Texas w/ Nippert
Play Selected Money Line: -121

Rating: 2 Units

BOSTON is 7-16 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons. TEXAS is 9-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 1-9 (-9.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season this season.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - (Free Picks) - 22-18 (+277 Units)
MLB - (Overall Picks) - 86-51 (+3696 Units)
NFLX - (Overall Picks) - 2-3-1 (-260 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - Aug 17, 2009 10:05 PM EDT

Play on Chicago w/ Lilly
Play Selected Money Line: -122

Rating: 2 Units

Playing against underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN DIEGO) who is a bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game is 133-38 over the last 5 seasons. LILLY is 15-2 (+12.7 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 12-43 (-29.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - (Free Picks) - 23-18 (+477 Units)
MLB - (Overall Picks) - 87-53 (+2796 Units)
NFLX - (Overall Picks) - 2-3-1 (-260 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

LAA Angels vs. Cleveland Indians (MLB) - Aug 18, 2009 7:05 PM EDT

Play on LAA Angels w/ Bell
Play Selected Money Line: -102

Rating: 2 Units

CARMONA is 1-7 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in home games against AL West opponents over the last 3 seasons. LA ANGELS are 24-9 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after batting .300 or better over a 15 game span this season. LA ANGELS are 22-9 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - (Free Picks) - 23-19 (+233 Units)
MLB - (Overall Picks) - 90-54 (+3352 Units)
NFLX - (Overall Picks) - 2-3-2 (-260 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

Florida Marlins vs. Houston Astros (MLB) - Aug 19, 2009 8:05 PM EDT

Play on Florida w/ West
Play Selected Money Line: -108


Rating: 2 Units

FLORIDA is 10-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game this season. FLORIDA is 28-15 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. FLORIDA is 11-5 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - (Free Picks) - 24-19 (+433 Units)
MLB - (Overall Picks) - 92-56 (+3049 Units)
NFLX - (Overall Picks) - 2-3-2 (-260 Units)

[Michael Alexander]

Florida Marlins vs. Houston Astros (MLB) - Aug 20, 2009 8:05 PM EDT

Play on Florida w/ Johnson
Play Selected Money Line: -118

Rating: 2 Units

JOHNSON is 8-1 (+7.3 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. JOHNSON is 17-5 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. JOHNSON is 11-2 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***


YTD Record

MLB - (Free Picks) - 24-20 (+217 Units)
MLB - (Overall Picks) - 95-59 (+3156 Units)
NFLX - (Overall Picks) - 2-3-2 (-260 Units)