MLB Free Pick for Monday 8/17/09

[Michael Alexander]

Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - Aug 17, 2009 10:05 PM EDT

Play on Chicago w/ Lilly
Play Selected Money Line: -122

Rating: 2 Units

Playing against underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN DIEGO) who is a bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game is 133-38 over the last 5 seasons. LILLY is 15-2 (+12.7 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 12-43 (-29.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***



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[TheWiesguy]

Seems like a good spot to play the Cubbies although Correia may be their best SP right now and they are getting some good production from their rookies.

Maybe a good game to play the over at 7.5.

[the noise factor]

My play would be with the Cubbies tonight.