Free Picks - May 2nd - Service Plays

GAME TIME SPORTS ADVISORS
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) - May 2, 2009 10:10 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: 157 San Diego Padres

We are backing the Padres a FREE PLAY. Young had been pitching well until getting lit up in Coors Field. That happens to many pitchers. But now in a great pitchers park, we find him getting a nice number vs a middle of the road retread pitcher.

TONY KARPINSKI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) - May 2, 2009 3:40 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -113 Philadelphia Phillies

This is more a play against New York lefty Oliver Perez than anything else. Yes, Perez was outstanding against the Phillies last year, giving up just one run in four starts covering 26 innings, with the Mets winning three of those contests. But after signing a hefty free-agent contract in the offseason to remain with New York, he hasn’t exactly been earning his paycheck. In four starts in 2009 (three of which the Mets have lost), Perez has given up 20 runs and 23 hits (three home runs) in 19 1/3 innings (9.31 ERA). He is over weight and looks awful and another bad outing and he'll be down in AAA.

Throw in the fact that Philadelphia is on streaks of 9-1 against lefty starters and this one’s a no-brainer. Back the home squad to bounce back with a win this afternoon.

Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs (MLB) - May 2, 2009 1:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: 135 Florida Marlins

The Marlins and Cubs are set to play game three of this four-game set at Wrigley Field on Saturday with the first pitch at 1:05PM Eastern Time. The Cubs had lost seven of their last nine games heading into Friday’s game with the Marlins and were starring at number eight trailing 5 to 2 in the bottom of the sixth when Ryan Theriot hit a grand slam and the Cubs hung on to win 8 to 6. The Marlins had several opportunities to score more runs leaving twelve runners on base which matched a season high for the fish. On Saturday the Cubs will send Ted Lilly to the bump with his 2-2 record and ERA of 3.80. His last trip to the hill Lilly gave up five runs, six hits and four walks in just five innings of work in a 7 to 2 loss to the Diamondbacks. Lilly will be trying to avoid losing three straight for the first time since May 31 2006, when he pitched for the Blue Jays. He would have picked another opponent I’m sure since the left-hander has never defeated the Fish, going 0-4 W/L with an ERA of 5.53 in five starts versus the Marlins. Lilly is 6-14 W/L (-14.0 Units) versus an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse the last 3 seasons and 3-11 W/L (-11.5 Units) versus an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse the last 2 seasons.
Florida will send Anibal Sanchez to the hill with a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 4.13 on the season. Sanchez allowed five runs in eighteen innings of work over his first three starts but he gave up six runs, four hits and two walks in the first inning of a 7 to 1 loss to the Mets on Monday. He actually settled down after that and held the Mets scoreless over the next five innings before being taken out. The one big inning killed any shot he had at getting the win but he was able to overcome that terrible start and keep his composure which should help him here. He has one career start versus the Cubs back on August 16 he pitched 5 1-3 innings allowing one run, three hits and five walks of a 2 to 1 victory. Florida is 7-0 W/L (+8.4 Units) in road games vs. a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season, 7-0 W/L (+8.4 Units) in road games vs. a bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season and 6-0 W/L (+7.6 Units) versus a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse this season. The Fish are 36-19 W/L (+21.2 Units) versus an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse the last 2 seasons and 40-18 W/L (+25.1 Units) versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse the last 2 seasons. We are getting decent value with the underdog Fish here so take the chalk as the Marlins end both one game streaks for each team and get back to their winning ways.

Graded Selection: 2* Florida Marlins 5 Chicago Cubs 4

mlb. arizona-125 @ milwaukee.

Max Scherzer had a solid outing for Arizona in its series opener with Milwaukee. That was followed by one from Jon Garland. Now, Dan Haren looks to give the Diamondbacks another quality start Tonight as they seek consecutive wins over the Brewers at Miller Park for the first time since 2003, Arizona wins-125. .