Matt Fargo
B.Y.U. vs. New Mexico (NCAAB) - Feb 26, 2008 10:00 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: -4.5/-104 New Mexico Pick Title:

I’ve mentioned numerous times that revenge cane be a tricky thing and should only be used as a motivator and not solely as a reason for a play. Revenge is definitely a motivator tonight for the Lobos but there are many other factors going into this one as well. BYU took care of New Mexico by 17 points in the first meeting, the second biggest defeat of the season. The Cougars shot the lights out, hitting a remarkable 13-16 from three-point land (81.3 percent), and held J.R. Giddens to a season-low four points.

BYU is coming off a loss at San Diego St. on Saturday which snapped a nine-game winning streak and suddenly brought UNLV and New Mexico back into the MWC race. The schedule heavily favors the Cougars however as the final three games are against nobody’s no wrapping up a conference title should not be a problem. However, coming out of the Pit with a win isn’t going to be easy as the Lobos remember what BYU did last season, coming in and winning by 21 points.

Really good teams have the ability to win games on the road and that is something that BYU no doubt can do as it is 6-4 on the road. However, it is New Mexico that is the team getting it done. After going 3-19 in true road games the past two seasons and 8-43 in the five seasons from 2003-07, the Lobos are 7-5 this year. Obviously this is not a road game but it is for making a point that the Lobos can be now classified as one of the top teams around. It doesn’t hurt being 15-1 at home either.

The Lobos lead the MWC in scoring offense at 75.0 ppg, scoring margin at +12.5 and three-point shooting at 43.7 percent. New Mexico has won six straight games including a huge win Saturday. The Lobos defeated Utah at the Huntsman Center for the first time since 1989, snapping an 18-game losing streak there. Now they look to break another streak and that is a five-game losing streak to the Cougars. The last time they lost 6 straight games was during a 0-22 start to the series between 1950 and 1962.

New Mexico has covered six straight and that sets up a solid situation. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after covering the spread in five or more consecutive games, playing their 3rd game in a in seven days. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +10.5 ppg. New Mexico is 13-2 ATS as a home favorite this season, with a scoring margin of +22.8 ppg. The Lobos are also 14-2 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season. They get their payback Tuesday. Play New Mexico Lobos 1 Unit

Matt Fargo did it yet again in college hoops on Monday! It was another profitable day in CBB with plays going 2-1, making it 13 winning days on the last 19! We are poised to add another one to the books Tuesday headed by a monster play! The Big 12 Game of the Month is backed by 36-6 ATS (85.7%) Team Angles! College GOM releases are 6-3 ATS (66.7%) L9!

You can also find Matt's Plays at 10StarPicks.com