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Old 08-28-2008, 01:06 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Free Thursday NFLX Football Picks

7:00 PM ET

1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)

WASHINGTON -3 over Jacksonville

The Jaguars make a trip to D.C. on Thursday to face the red-faced Redskins, who got destroyed last week in Carolina. The Redskins will kick off their season with a Thursday night date at the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants next week, so they need to get their confidence back in a big way.

Although he acknowledged there is the potential for injury in another meaningless preseason game, new 'Skins coach Jim Zorn believes that having his top offensive performers end the preseason on such a down note of a 47-3 loss could be an even a bigger gamble. The Redskins support his decision:

"It only makes sense' to have the starters play again", wide receiver Antwaan Randle El said. "It makes sense to get back out there, get it tuned up, cranked up and get it fixed. You just don't want to have that as your last impression going into your season. Really, your last impression shouldn't be that."

One of our strongest NFLX handicapping strategies is to play ON a team off a poor performance by its 1st and 2nd-stringers. If a veteran unit was dominated by its counterpart in the previous game, there’s a good chance they will have a fire lit under them. We will never see a stronger example of this than we have here with Washington. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is off a solid victory at Tampa, allowing us to play AGAINST a team relaxed off a win and not concerned about another victory.

We have numerous NFLX POWER SYSTEMS active for this game favoring the Redskins. Game 4 and 5 teams (not a favorite of more than 4 points) off a SU loss of 20+ points scoring less than 7 points vs. an opponent off a SU win are a perfect 9-0 ATS, home teams off a road SU loss vs. opponents off a road SU win are 33-17 ATS, and home favorites of 2½-4½ points off a road SU loss of 17+ points, scoring less than 8 points in their last game are 24-6 ATS.

We expect a very motivated Redskins team to post a solid "W" here to finish the preseason on a strong note.

PROJECTED FINAL MARGIN: WASHINGTON OVER JACKSONVILLE BY 10 POINTS
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