FREE MLB Baseball Picks - Saturday, August 2, 2008

[ProInfoSports.com]

Sport / Type: MLB / FREE SELECTION

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates (Maholm) vs. Chicago Cubs (Lilly) 1:05 EST

Prediction: OVER

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

Analysis:

Wrigley Field will be the site for Saturday's Game Two between the Cubs and Pirates as they continue their three-game weekend set. Pittsburgh captured game one as a huge road puppy, winning 3-0.

The Chicago bats fell silent after scoring 40 runs during their most recent five-game winning streak as they only managed five hits on Friday versus the Pirates. The Cubs who sit atop the NL with 580 runs scored on the season stranded eight and went 0-5 with runners in scoring position on Friday.

After the 3-0 loss Cubs manager Lou Piniella said "give their pitchers credit, they pitched a good ballgame and beat us." This bureau believes Cub fans won't have to worry about a similar performance from their team on Saturday. Lou will have them playing more like the NL Central-leading team that they are.

As far as wins go Saturday will not be any easier as they face the Pirates starter Paul Maholm (7-6, 3.79 ERA), who has yet to lose to the Cubs. He is 4-0 despite posting a 6.15 ERA in seven career outings against Chicago, and the Pirates have won six of those appearances. It's that extremely high ERA that helps with our selection on the "Over" in this contest, even though he gets the win Maholm allows the Cubs to plate runs.

The Cubs counter with Ted Lilly and his 10-6 record and 4.49 ERA on the year. In his last trip to the bump versus the Pirates he faced Maholm and was reached for four runs and 10 hits in six innings in that contest. Lilly allowed three runs, seven hits, and two homers in six innings Monday, but didn't receive a decision in a 6-4 win at Milwaukee. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in seven career appearances against Pittsburgh.

Saturday's starters provide us with career ERA's of 6.15 and 5.40 respectively, when added to our technical support it gives us a solid play on the "Over" in Game Two.

On the technical front we see the Pirates are 13-3-3 Over their last 19 as a underdog of +150 or more, 6-1 Over as a road underdog, 38-14-4 Over their last 56 on the road, 41-16-3 Over their last 60 when installed as a road underdog, 36-17-6 Over their last 59 road games when facing a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or better, 43-21-2 Over their last 66 road games facing a winning team, Maholm is 6-0 Over his last 6 as an underdog of +150 or more, 7-0 Over as a road underdog his last 7 and 13-5-1 Over his last 19 when starting game two of a series. The Cubs are 5-0 Over versus the NL Central, 4-0 Over when facing a left-handed starter, 11-5 Over their last 16 at home versus left-handed starters, Lilly is 6-0 Over his last 6 when starting with at least 4 days rest, 4-0 Over his last 4 home starts versus a losing team, 6-1 Over his last 7 starts overall, 9-2 Over his last 11 versus a NL Central opponent and 4-1 Over his last 5 when installed as a favorite.

We also know that Pittsburgh is 62-40 Over in all games this season, 34-13 Over on the road, 28-15 Over when facing a division opponent and 22-9 Over when playing a night game. Pittsburgh averages scoring 5.2 runs per game on the road and their bullpen has an ERA of 5.30 on the highway. The Cubs are 55-49 Over in all games this season, 5-2 Over their last 7 games overall and 25-17 Over when facing a division opponent. Chicago averages scoring 6.2 runs per game when playing at home and 6.2 runs per game when facing a left-handed starter.

Our Pitcher Power Index Ratings have Maholm allowing the Cubs to plate 6.7 runs while Lilly gets touched for 5.9 in Saturday's contest. With our Team Power Index Ratings showing a final score of Chicago 8 and Pittsburgh 6 we are recommending a play on the "Over" in Saturdays Game Two.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* PITTSBURGH / CHICAGO OVER