Boise State vs. New Mexico State NCAAB Free Point Spread Pick

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

Matt Fargo
Boise State vs. New Mexico State (NCAAB) - Mar 15, 2008 9:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 6.5/-105 Boise State Pick Title:

This is another one of those unfair tournaments where a school that was not the regular season champion gets to host the conference tournament. In this case, it is New Mexico St. who looks to win the WAC Tournament for the second straight season thanks to a huge home court advantage. The Aggies are 16-3 at home this season compared to 19-1 last season so there is more vulnerability this time around. New Mexico St. has picked up steam at the right time with eight wins in its last nine games but is in a tough spot here.

Boise St. dropped four conference games all season long and two came against New Mexico St. and we all know about winning three times in the same season against the same team and how difficult that is. That was proven last night as a matter of fact. The Broncos lost their season finale at home to Utah St., missing out on the WAC's outright title and that gave Utah St. a regular season sweep of the series. Boise St. has a chance to revenge yet another opportunity.

The Broncos were the only team in the WAC to finish the season with a better record on the road than at home. Boise St. is now 13-3 in games outside of its home floor and one of those defeats was a 19-point shellacking at the hands of the Aggies and it no doubt has not forgotten about that one. The Broncos are coming off an extremely efficient game against Utah St., hitting 50.9 percent from the floor, 52.4 percent from long range, 80.8 percent from the free throw line and posting a 2.13 assist/turnover ratio.

This is nothing new for Boise St. who is third in the country in shooting at 50.3 percent. The Broncos shot a combined 49.2 percent in the two meetings against the Aggies but lost both because they were outrebounded by a combined 33 boards. That is impossible to overcome and while the Aggies have been extremely tough on the glass at home, Boise St. has been improving and brings in a +2.3 rpg margin which is much better than its +0.3 rpg margin brought in prior to the last meeting.

The Aggies have been playing extremely well but a lot of that has come against weak opponents. New Mexico St. is 4-13 ATS when playing against a team winning between 60 and 80 percent of its games over the last two seasons and it is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Broncos are 9-2 ATS in road games after winning four or five of their last six games this season. Boise St. has covered nine of its last 11 on the road and an outright win here is certainly not out of the question. Play Boise St. Broncos 1 Unit

Matt Fargo broke through on Friday with a profitable night as he swept his late Premium card with a 3-0 mark! Top Plays go a stellar 3-1 yesterday in hoops as we are now back hitting our stride! Saturday provides some great opportunities and the biggest one of the postseason goes tonight! The Conference Tourney Game of the Year is backed by 51-15 ATS (77.3%) Team Angles!

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