Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) over ATLANTA HAWKS

Home teams in NFC South Matchups have done notoriously well this year, but the Bucs are about to break that trend. Atlanta turned a huge victory over the Chargers in to a heartbreaking loss to the crap happy Saints and now face a dangerous Bucs team that loves to come out punching.

The danger for the Bucs is going down big in the first half. But if the Tampa defense has proven anything, it’s that it can rally after a blowout. After losing to New Orleans in Week 1, they came back and throttled the Falcons 24-9. When they were stunned in Denver in Week 5, they whopped the Panthers 27.3. Coming off an embarrassing loss to Brad Johnson and the Cowboys, they rallied past the Chiefs in Week 9. The Bucs may be down in the NFC South race, but that’s when they’re at their most dangerous.

Going 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Atlanta should also spring some confidence in your betting two-step. The Bucs are a safer bet than this line says. Besides, rookie quarterbacks and the Tampa Cover-2 are never a safe mix. Well, for the quarterback at least.