NFL | Sep 21
Oakland Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
Matt Fargo Handicapping Picks

This line looks very big at first glance especially with the Raiders coming off a big win at Kansas City last Sunday. That win actually helps up out here because I just can’t see Oakland winning two straight on the road. That game along with the fact the Raiders have a big division game at home against San Diego next week puts them in a tough sandwich spot as well. Since 2004-05, the Raiders have won five road games and have lost the next road game all five times and by an average of 19.6 ppg.

What can you say about the Bills right now? After dominating the Seahawks in Week One, they came from behind last week to win in Jacksonville. Right now it is quite conceivable that the Bills can go into their bye week 5-0 after they have games at St. Louis and at Arizona in the next two weeks. Buffalo cannot stumble here and the makeup of this team tells us they won’t. This could be a letdown for a lot of teams but heading home with a chance to stay in first place will keep it focused.

The Buffalo defense will be the difference here. The Bills recorded five sacks in Week One and allowed just 252 total yards to the Seahawks. Last week, they had two sacks and allowed just 243 total yards. Buffalo is 5th in the NFL in total defense, 4th if you take Baltimore out of the mix due to just playing one game. They are 10th in rushing defense, the strength of the Raiders on offense. Buffalo needs to control the running game and make JaMarcus Russell beat it, something has is not capable of doing yet.

On the other side, Trent Edwards has looked very impressive as he completed close to 71 percent of his passes while putting up a 107.7 passer rating which is good for 8th in the NFL. He is completely in control of the offense. Marshawn Lynch has yet to put a solid game together but it is there and this could be the defense for it to happen against. Oakland allowed just 55 yards rushing last week but the Chiefs ran it only 19 times. The Broncos had much better success in Week One.

Oakland heads east and falls into a very solid go against situation, one that is a personal favorite and one that wins at an amazing clip. With the travel aspect of the Raiders, it brings in a solid situation favoring the Bills. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 13-53 ATS (19.7 percent) since 2000. This system is 1-0 ATS this season with the Bills winning in Week One over Seattle. Play Buffalo Bills 1.5 Units

Fargo has been on fire through the first two weeks, going 7-2-1 ATS (77.8%) with his NFL Premium Reports! In Week One, he released his Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Bills and it covered by 23 points! This week, he is releasing his *3* NFC Game of the Month and it is backed by a 53-13 ATS (80.3%) Power Situation! He keeps the pedal down and wins again!

NFL Ready to roll again
**NCAA 14-10-3 ATS (58.3%) YTD
**NFL 7-2-1 ATS (77.8%) YTD
**NCAA/NFL Combined 21-12-4 ATS (63.6%) YTD

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