Ravens vs. Falcons PreSeason Gambling Preview \ Free Pick

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

Falcons Visit Ravens in NFL Preseason Barn Burner!

The Baltimore Ravens (5-11 SU, 3-13 ATS in 2007; 1-2 SU & ATS in pre-season) will conclude their regular season on Thursday night when they play host to the rebuilding Atlanta Falcons (4-12 SU, 8-8 ATS in 2007; 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL exhibition contest that is scheduled for a 7:30 PM ET kickoff at M&T Bank Stadium (artificial turf) in Baltimore.



Thursday, August 28

BetUS NFL betting odds: BALTIMORE -3, Total 33

NOTABLE STAT: Baltimore allowed 2.8 yards per rush in 2007 (1st in NFL)
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Ravens have played ten unders in last 14 in pre-season

In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Ravens are listed as a three-point favorite (at even money), with the total posted at 33 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* ATL has lost six of its last seven games SU
* ATL has covered two of its last six games
* ATL has played its last seven games OVER the total
* ATL has lost eight of its last nine road games SU
* ATL has covered five of its last seven road games
* ATL has played ten of its last 13 road games UNDER the total
* BALT has lost nine of its last ten games SU
* BALT has covered two of its last ten games
* BALT has played six of its last seven games OVER the total

Pre-Season trends:

* ATL has won 10 of its last 16 pre-season games SU
* ATL is 10-5-1 ATS in its last 16 pre-season games
* BALT has played 10 of its last 14 pre-season games UNDER the total

These teams have combined for a grand total of 84 points in their pre-season games. Both clubs drafted quarterbacks in the first round. And both of them had three-way battles for the position - Atlanta with Chris Redman, Joey Harrington and rookie Matt Ryan, and Baltimore with Kyle Boller, Troy Smith and rookie Joe Flacco.

The difference is that the Falcons have handed their starting job over to Ryan, who has gone 32 of 52 in the pre-season, while Flacco is still kind of trying to get himself untracked. And Flacco is the guy who could be in the spotlight for this final pre-season game, as Smith and Boller are battling ailments - Boller to his throwing shoulder, and Smith, who has what is described as a "viral illness." Can you imagine if this situation didn't get remedied in time for the season opener?

Baltimore had a poor offensive outing against St. Louis last week, gaining only 209 yards. In tree exhibitions, the Ravens have averaged only 217 total yards on offense. That is not something that is going to make Baltimore fans forget Brian Billick. Ultimately I think there is more upside to the Atlanta offense, but the question is, how do things apply in this game?

Well, Smith has not been ruled out, and if he can go, he will play up to three quarters before giving way to Flacco, who started last Saturday night against St. Louis, completing 18 of 37 passes for 152 yards.

The battle now in Atlanta revolves around who will be the backup for Ryan, because it will almost certainly result in the release of a veteran. Harrington may find himself fighting for an NFL job against the more economical D.J. Shockley, who sat out the game last Friday against Tennessee but is going to replace Ryan in the second or third quarter.

The mission of new Atlanta coach Mike Smith has been clear; he wants to run the football. And the Falcons have not been disappointing in that area, totaling 311 yards in the last two contests (against the Titans and Colts).

The Ravens are what might be referred to as "moribund" on offense. We'll grab the points with the Falcons, the three-point underdog in the BetUS NFL pre-season betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: ATLANTA +3 **

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