Dolphins vs. Jaguars NFLX Preseason Preview - Free Prediction \ Pick

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

NFL Preseason Preview - Miami vs. Jacksonville
The Pennington Man Shall Pass in Miami

The Miami Dolphins (1-15 SU, 5-9-2 ATS in 2007, 0-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) will be breaking a new quarterback into the lineup when they travel north to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (natural turf) on Saturday night to play the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5 SU & ATS in 2007 regular season, 1-0 SU, 0-1 in pre-season) in NFL action that gets underway at 7:30 PM ET.



BetUS NFL Betting Odds JACKSONVILLE -3.5, Total 34.5

Saturday, August 16

NOTABLE STAT: Dolphins were last in the NFL in rushing defense in 2007 (150.5 ypg)

KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Jags have played 10 of last 13 pre-season games over the total

In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Jaguars are listed as a 3.5-point favorite, with the total posted at 34.5 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* MIA has lost 18 of its last 19 games SU
* MIA has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* JAX has won seven of its last ten games SU
* JAX has covered eight of its last ten games
* JAX has played 11 of its last 12 games OVER the total
* JAX has won six of its last seven home games SU
* JAX has covered five of its last six home games
* JAX has played five of its last six home games OVER the total
* MIA has lost eight of its last 13 pre-season games SU
* JAX has won seven of its last nine pre-season games
* JAX has played 10 of its last 13 pre-season games OVER the total
* JAX has won five of its last seven pre-season home games
* JAX has played five of its last seven pre-season home games OVER the total

The word out of Miami is that only two quarterbacks will play for the Dolphins on Saturday. One of them will be Chad Pennington, who has just been acquired off waivers after the Jets released him. Pennington arrived in camp right before the game against Tampa Bay, so he's had about a week to work on plays and shouldn't be in two deep in his first go-around.

The other QB who will play is Chad Henne, who looked spirited and sharp at times in his outing against the Bucs. Henne, a rookie from Michigan who was drafted in the second round, is going to make the roster, as will Pennington. The Dolphins may want to see how far he's coming and whether they would be ready to hand the backup quarterback spot over to him. That in turn may be a factor in determining whether veteran Josh McCown or second-year man John Beck is the guy they keep.

Beck is a player the previous regime brought in, not Bill Parcells, so the deck may have gotten stacked against him. We can tell you that the wide receivers were not particularly impressive last weekend, but the running backs did just fine, especially Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs. Look for more action from Cobbs certainly.

Miami would have a long way to go before being dependable in stopping the run, and so whatever combination they put out there may not have a load of success in corralling the Jaguar running game. Jack Del Rio seems to like it when his teams put out in the pre-season, as they have won seven of the last nine, and Miami doesn't really have that "quarterback competition" thing going for them anymore. In fact, some think they know exactly who they're keeping and who they're cutting.

Let's take the Jags in this one and lay 3.5 points in the NFL pre-season football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: JACKSONVILLE -3.5 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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