Free Pick - Bengals vs. Packers MNF

[Shame About Ray]

NFL: Cincinnati at Green Bay

The Green Bay Packers (-3) host the Cincinnati Bengals on ESPN’s preseason Monday Night Football with quarterback Aaron Rodgers clearly on the hot seat.



With Brett Favre with the Jets, most of the Monday broadcast will focus on Rodgers. His play, the reception he gets, and how he handles himself in his new role as starter will be critiqued to the point of overload.

When looking at this game from a betting perspective, you have to decide how much the Favre distractions have hurt the team. While the organization and players have insisted the Favre-saga has been put behind them, their actions on the field in a sloppy scrimmage last Saturday night would certainly suggest otherwise.

Green Bay has not hosted a game at Lambeau Field since the NFC Championship loss to the Giants, and Green Bay has struggled in the preseason under coach Mike McCarthy, going just 3-5 ATS (2-2) at home. The scenario that has been most challenging has been against AFC foes, as the Pack is just 1-5 ATS over the last two seasons in that scenario.

The questions won’t stop at Rodgers tonight for Green Bay, as both of his backups are rookies. Brian Brohm of Louisville is the assumed second-string replacement and he will be followed by Matt Flynn of LSU, the starter for last year’s national champion team. Both have endured struggles in their transition to the NFL since the April draft.

Where questions abound in Green Bay, optimism reigns in Cincinnati. The Bengals are anxious to put the 2007 season behind them.

Several players who received their share of negative off-the-field attention are gone, and the team has turned to a more character-strong roster. Of course, there might not be any bigger characters than wide receiver Chad Johnson in the entire league. His threats of holding out for a trade went idle and he remains a Bengal for the coming season. Still, after battling injury during the start of training camp, he figures to be on the sideline tonight.

Cincinnati has struggled on the road in the preseason in the five years under Marvin Lewis. His teams are just 2-6 straight-up and 4-4 ATS in that scenario. However, with a renewed focus on the defensive side of the football, Lewis’ group figures to improve tonight.

Additionally, where the total is concerned, Monday’s game fits into a strong StatFox Super Situation focusing on the Under 36:

Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CINCINNATI) - in the first two weeks of the pre-season. (44-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71%, +24.2 units. Rating = 2*)

This will be the second time in three pre-seasons that the Packers and Bengals have met, and Green Bay will be looking for an entirely different outcome than the last time. In that 2006 contest in Cincinnati, the Bengals thrashed the Packers, 48-17, after taking a 34-7 lead into the halftime locker room.

StatFox Pick: Cincinnati +3 and Under 36

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