Sportsbook.com NFC South Betting Preview | Futures

[Shame About Ray]

NFL: Carousel continues in NFC South

No team has won the NFC South in back-to-back years since the NFL re-aligned divisions in 2002.



Oddsmakers expect the carousel to continue rotating in 2008 as last year’s division winner, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are listed behind the favored New Orleans Saints who are 11:10 to win.

New Orleans won the division in 2006 and was favored to do so again last year but got off to a disappointing start and never recovered.

As the start of the new season draws closer, the Saints are once again the favorite in the NFC South and you can bet on them or any of the other teams in our NFL Futures Odds. Bet on the Division and Conference Winners, the Super Bowl Winner, Week 1 matchups and the biggest Games of the Year.

Leading up to the Opening Kickoff between the Washington Redskins and New York Giants on September 4th, we’ll preview each of the NFL’s eight divisions and keep you up to date on the latest futures odds.

Here’s a look at the NFC South:

New Orleans Saints (11:10)

The New Orleans Saints fell in love with Reggie Bush early in 2007 and paid for it. After a 2006 season in which the Saints utilized Bush and fellow running back Deuce McAllister perfectly, they ultimately failed last year when they tried to make the much-hyped sophomore the focus of the offense.

Through the first three games of the 2007 season, Bush managed just 150 yards of total offense with McAllister getting just 24 carries in those contests. McAllister, who tore his ACL in the third game last year, needs to be a bigger part of the offense, but recovering from his second torn ACL in three seasons, his health remains a big question.

Either way, Bush has yet to develop into the every down back the Saints hoped they were getting, so Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker need to be ready for action.

Quarterback Drew Brees remains one of the top performers in the game and tight end Jeremy Shockey is likely to join receiver Marcus Colston as his favorite targets. The acquisition of Shockey gives Brees another big target and should only help to open up the offense.

Despite acquiring Shockey from the Giants, New Orleans spent most of its offseason upgrading the defense. Linebacker Jonathan Vilma comes in from the New York Jets while a secondary regarded as the worst in the NFL adds veteran cornerbacks Randall Gay and Aaron Glenn.

The Saints also used their first three picks in the NFL Draft on defensive players, drafting defensive tackles Sedrick Ellis and DeMario Pressley along with cornerback Tracy Porter.

With an improved defense and an offense that should be tough to stop, the Saints have the tools in place to make it over the 8 ½ regular season wins set by oddsmakers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2:1)

After a terrible 2006 season, the Bucs surprised the NFC South when they went 9-7 to win the division last year.

A 9-7 record is not likely to cut it this year though and the Bucs know that, signing a slew of veterans in the offseason. None of the additions are game-breakers but they can all contribute to make this a better team.

Wide receiver Antonio Bryant and running back Warrick Dunn join quarterback Jeff Garcia on offense. Bryant didn’t play last season, but should combine with Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard to give Garcia a third receiving option if Michael Clayton continues to disappoint.

And while he’s no longer a starter in the NFL, Dunn should provide a nice option out of the backfield behind starter Earnest Graham, who had 898 yards in 10 starts last year. Former first-round pick Cadillac Williams is still holding out hope for a return from a torn patellar tendon but the oft-injured RB is anything but a sure-bet.

The second rated defense in the league last year, Tampa Bay added defensive back Eugene Wilson from the New England Patriots and drafted cornerback Aqib Talib out of Kansas with their first pick in the draft.

It’s no secret that the key to Tampa’s success is defense and the Bucs gave up just 278.4 yards of offense per game last season, second to only the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not only did this unit limit yardage, they also forced turnovers, finishing with a +15 turnover ratio.

The big question is whether veteran leaders Ronde Barber and Derrick Brooks can continue to hold up as both are now over the age of 33. If they can, it’ll be interesting to see if this team can get over the regular season win total of eight.

Carolina Panthers (5:2)

Since playing in Super Bowl XXXVIII the Carolina Panthers have been consistently disappointing with just one winning season in the four since. Experts and oddsmakers continually rank the Panthers among the elite in the NFC but they never made it back to the big game.

You can’t really blame the Panthers last year though. The 7-9 season was about as good as you can get with David Carr, Vinny Testaverde and Matt Moore rotating at the QB position after starter Jake Delhomme went down with an elbow injury.

With Delhomme back and healthy, the Panthers offense should excel in 2008. Big play receiver Steve Smith is joined by free agent signees D.J. Hackett and aging veteran Muhsin Muhammad, playing his second stint with Carolina.

The running game should be rejuvenated with Jonathan Stewart providing a power running option that this team hasn’t had in several years. Stewart, the 13th pick in the draft, made a name for himself at Oregon by shedding tackles and dropping would-be tacklers on their backs.

While there is concern over a toe injury that gave him problems last season, Stewart had an operation and should be set to join the shifty DeAngelo Williams in the backfield.

Not much has changed on the defensive side of the ball, with the exception of the Panthers adding depth players in free agency.

However, the Panthers need Julius Peppers to rebound from a terrible 2007. The three-time Pro Bowler had just 2 ½ sacks, the lowest number of his career. Peppers was slowed by injuries last season and missed two games. The good news for Carolina bettors is that the star defensive end is entering a contract year, a season in which a number of players put up some of the best numbers of their career.

If Peppers can return to his Pro Bowl form then the Panthers should improve on the 324.8 yards per game of offense they gave up last year and return to the top of the league. If they can, there’s a good chance they make the playoffs and go over the 7 ½ regular season win total.

Atlanta Falcons (12:1)

There are not many teams in the NFL that you can completely write off as not having a chance to win the division, however the Atlanta Falcons are one of those according to the oddsmakers.

The 12:1 odds to win the division are among the longest odds any team in the league is seeing, and for good reason.

Only three teams scored fewer points than the Falcons in 2007; only four teams gave up more points. After a 4-12 season, things don’t look to be improving for 2008 and playing in a division with three legitimate playoff contenders doesn’t help.

Gone are the team’s top offensive and defensive players; tight end Alge Crumpler and cornerback DeAngelo Hall. And when one of your biggest free agent signings is a kicker (Jason Elam), you know it hasn’t been a good offseason.

The only free agent signing that trumps the addition of Elam is running back Michael Turner, who has spent the last four seasons backing up LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego. The explosive back has shown great ability, including averaging 6.3 yards per carry in 13 games in 2006 but he’s not likely to get the running room he got in San Diego.

A quarterback competition between third overall pick Matt Ryan, Chris Redman and Joey Harrington will decide the starter for Week 1 and although the Falcons are not expected to contend, it might be better that they go with one of the veterans and give Ryan some time to watch from the sidelines before throwing him to the wolves.

On the other side of the ball, there’s not much change to show that Atlanta will improve upon a defense that gave up 355.5 yards per game, 29th in the league.

The 2008 season looks like a long one for Falcons’ backers and just getting over the 4 ½ regular season wins set by oddsmakers would be a surprise.


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