Colts vs. Jaguars - Thursday Night NFL Betting Pick

[Shame About Ray]

BetUS NFL Betting Odds: Indianapolis -1
NOTABLE STAT: Colts allowed 16.4 ppg in 2007 (best in league)
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Jacksonville has played eleven of last 12 games over the total

Two of the major contenders in the American Football Conference will get together in a late-season game that could have very strong division championship implications when the Indianapolis Colts, Super Bowl champions from two seasons ago, visit the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team knocking on the door for some time now, in a special Thursday night NFL game that will be televised from Jacksonville Memorial Stadium (natural turf) at 8:15 PM ET on December 18.

In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Colts are listed as a one-point advance road favorite

Here are some NFL football wagering trends as they relate to this sports betting matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* IND has won six of its last eight games SU
* IND has covered three of its last nine games
* IND has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* IND has won nine of its last ten road games SU
* IND has covered four of its last six road games
* IND has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
* JAX has won seven of its last ten games SU
* JAX has covered eight of its last ten games
* JAX has played 11 of its last 12 games OVER the total
* JAX has won six of its last seven home games SU
* JAX has covered five of its last six home games
* JAX has played five of its last six home games OVER the total
* IND has won 11 of the last 14 meetings SU
* JAX has covered five of the last seven meetings
* IND has won five of the last seven meetings SU as the road team
* JAX has covered four of the last six meetings as the home team

There is little way of knowing exactly how much meaning this game will eventually have; one of these teams might have wrapped up the division by then, which would then dictate plenty of reserves in action. But in the competitive AFC South, the race could go down to the wire, and it is a good bet that these two clubs will be near the top again.

Indianapolis has taken the measure of the Jaguars as far as coming out on the winning side, as Tony Dungy's team has won eleven of the last 14 meetings. Jacksonville, however, is tough at home; last year they won six of their last seven games at Jacksonville Memorial Stadium.

During that period, the only home game Jacksonville lost was a 29-7 drubbing by the Colts in a game where Quinn Gray had to step in for an injured David Garrard, rendering the Jaguars' offense almost powerless. That was a vast departure from the previous meeting in Jacksonville, when the Jags ran all over the Colts' porous run defense, gaining 375 yards on the ground (good for 8.9 yards a carry) en route to a 44-17 victory that was indeed quite an embarrassment for the eventual Super Bowl champs.

The Jaguars bring many of the same component parts to the table, though Indianapolis has admittedly done a good job plugging up holes on its stop unit. Last season the Colts allowed less points than anyone in the NFL, and only two clubs (Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay) yielded less yardage. Against enemy rushing attacks, the difference was really like night and day; in 2006, Indy allowed 5.3 yards per carry to opponents, by far the highest figure ever for a Super Bowl winner. In 2007 that was slashed to just 3.8 yards an attempt. Needless to say, it will not be a picnic for Jacksonville if the Jags decide to play conservative.

And really, does Coach Jack Del Rio prefer it any other way? With running back Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville will run first and look for Garrard to take care of the ball. Garrard did extraordinarily well last season in that respect, throwing just three interceptions in the regular season. The year before, however, he had tossed nine picks in 241 attempts.

In terms of sheer firepower, the clear edge goes to Peyton Manning and the offense he commands from the line of scrimmage. It is not likely that by this time Marvin Harrison will be playing as prominent a role for the Colts, but he has basically handed the torch over to two-time Pro Bowler Reggie Wayne, with Anthony Gonzalez ready to emerge as the third wide receiver and Dallas Clark one of the league's more capable tight ends. If their new re-acquisition of Dominick Rhodes pays dividends, that only helps Joseph Addai,become a fresher, better back.

Dwight Freeney may not be back for the season opener, but at this point in the season he certainly should be available, and barring another injury, he'll be in Garrard's face, forcing bad throws. And Jacksonville's two rookie standouts at defensive end - Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey - may not even be a factor against the well-protected Manning (sacked just 21 times last year).

The Colts have become road warriors of sorts, winning nine of the last ten away from home. Over his last four meetings with the Jags, Manning's passer rating is only 84.3, but that only assures us the Jags can keep the game close. Manning knows more ways to pull out a win than Garrard, and in this near-pick'em affair, that is what counts.

JAY'S PLAY: INDIANAPOLIS (-1) **
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