Pennsylvania 500 at Pocono Raceway Picks | Preview

[Shame About Ray]

The Kyle Busch NASCAR betting juggernaut took a tumble last week at the Brickyard. Jimmie Johnson captured the checkered flag at the Allstate 400, a race that was essentially ruined because of excessive tire wear. The cars had to pit every 10 laps or so, spoiling the event from both a competitive and a spectator standpoint.



Tires aren’t expected to be much of a problem for this Sunday’s Pennsylvania 500 at Pocono Raceway. But that doesn’t necessarily mean smooth sailing ahead for Busch. Although he’s the runaway leader on the Sprint Cup circuit with seven victories, Busch hasn’t enjoyed a lot of success on this unusual triangular track. He has yet to win in seven tries at Pocono; in his first attempt inside the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota back in June, Busch crashed and finished last.

That’s a small sample size for handicappers to work with. However, it’s enough to make teammate Denny Hamlin the favorite at +500 on the NASCAR odds list. Hamlin finished third in June’s Pocono 500 to continue his brief history of excellent results at Long Pond. As a rookie in 2006, he took the pole and swept both races there when the Joe Gibbs team was still with Chevrolet. Last year’s maiden voyage with Toyota saw Hamlin finish sixth and third at Pocono in what was otherwise a difficult NASCAR debut for the Japanese automaker.

Busch remains near the top of Sunday’s table at +550, tied with Pocono 500 winner Kasey Kahne. It’s been feast or famine this year for Kahne and Gillett Evernham Motorsports. He has two wins this year, plus a victory at the All-Star Challenge to pick up a million bucks and zero points in the driver standings. But Kahne’s No. 9 Dodge has also finished outside of the Top 20 on eight occasions.

The Evernham team is still trying to get back on track after a lost 2007 campaign. June’s victory at Pocono shows they’re on the way, although it still leaves Kahne with an average career finish of 17.7 on the triangle. Johnson (+600) has a much better Pocono average of 10.3. The two-time defending Cup champion swept the two 2004 races and placed sixth in June.

The Pennsylvania 500 will be shown on ESPN starting at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Qualifying can be seen Friday and Saturday afternoon on ESPN2.

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