Yankees vs. White Sox MLB Free Pick (Wednesday)

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

Matt Fargo
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox (MLB) - Apr 23, 2008 8:10 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: 124 New York Yankees

This line is somewhat baffling and the reason is the opposite of what I normally see. The Yankees are a very healthy underdog here and it is rare to see it they are a very public team are most always are in the chalk role. New York won the opener of this series on Tuesday and has now won six of the last seven meetings in this series with the White Sox. The Yankees have won two straight to move back over .500 and have some good momentum right now despite the absence of Alex Rodriguez.

Chicago is sitting at a solid 11-8 but after a 5-2 start, it gone an average 6-6 since then. The White Sox are 4-4 at home and like the entire season, they just are not hitting the ball. Chicago is batting .247 on the season including .246 at home and just .239 over its last 10 games. This is the first time in eight meetings that the White Sox have been favored and the last time it was Mark Buehrle against Tyler Clippard and that one made sense. This one does not.

The pitching matchup is what is driving this line but digging deeper shows it is not the correct way to go. Mike Mussina is struggling there is no doubt but the two bad games came against the Red Sox, a team that he has notoriously been horrendous against. Since 2005, Mussina is 2-5 with a 7.00 ERA in 12 starts against Boston. Against the White Sox, it is a different story as he is 5-2 with a 3.83 ERA over the same timeframe. This includes a 3.70 ERA in four starts in Chicago.

Javier Vazquez has been on fire to start the season, going 3-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. However, like the Red Sox are Mussina’s nemesis, the Yankees are his. He is 1-3 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in four career starts against New York. He has tossed three straight quality outings and there is some debate whether he is part of the lower tier that I prefer to go against in such situations. Based on his 4.43 ERA over the previous four years, I don’t think this is a re-birth but just a good run that is about to end.

Play New York Yankees 1.5 Units

Matt Fargo went 1-2 overall in MLB last night with Houston +140 coming through! The Top Play with the Marlins barely went down last night but we get it back tonight with a big Winner! Top Plays are now 10-4 (71.4%) and we continue the run with the Runline Game of the Week! This is the first RL play of the season and it has BLOWOUT written all over it! Get on it now!

Click here to view all of Matt Fargo's premium picks.