Padres vs. Astros Tuesday MLB Baseball Free Pick

[Shame About Ray]

Matt Fargo
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros (MLB) - Apr 22, 2008 8:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: 140 Houston Astros

Houston took the opener last night, scoring five runs in the first inning and never looking back. The Astros have won a modest two straight games and things are starting to turn around after a horribly slow start. They are 5-4 over their last nine games after beginning the season 3-8 so things are definitely on an upswing. The offense was supposed to be one of the most improved in baseball but started out scoring four runs or less in seven of their first 10 games. They have now scored five runs or more in six of their last 11 games.

While it is pointing up for Houston, it is going the opposite way for the Padres. The loss last night was the fifth in the last six games for San Diego as the offense remains one of the worst in baseball. San Diego is hitting only .239 on the season, 4th worst in the league and that drops to .199 over its last 10 games. The Padres have scored the 2nd fewest runs in the league and they have put up three runs or less in nine of their last 12 games. San Diego also has a putrid 5.17 team ERA on the road.

It is hard to go up against a Cy Young winner but that is what it calls for here. Jake Peavy is once again pitching lights out but and that includes a shutout performance against the Astros already this season. That came at home however where Peavy has allowed only one run in three starts. In his lone road start, he allowed three runs on nine hits in six innings against the Dodgers. San Diego was 23-11 in his 34 starts last season which is certainly good bit it shows that winning all the time is hardly automatic.

The Astros are confident in the pitching matchup and so am I as Brandon Backe has made pitching in Minute Maid Park a huge strength. There are pitchers all over the league who are better at home than on the road and Backe is at the top of the list. He did not allow a run in his lone home start this season and his ERA at home in his career sits at a stellar 3.59 compared to 5.54 on the road. He is 15-5 at Minute Maid and while allowing a .290 BAA in 29 road starts, he allows opponents to hit just .245 in 22 home outings.

Play Houston Astros 1.5 Units

Matt Fargo did it against last night with another Top Play Winner as the Cardinals won in the N.L. Game of the Week! That extends the Top Play run to 10-3 (76.9%) and we add to it again tonight! This one is the biggest of the season thus far as Fargo releases his MLB Game of the Month! Game of the Month plays are a perfect 4-0 on the year and this is the easiest of all!

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