Rockies vs. Padres MLB Free Pick Matt Fargo

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

Matt Fargo
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - Apr 16, 2008 10:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: 128 Colorado Rockies

San Diego took this opener last night behind another brilliant performance from Randy Wolf which came as a huge surprise. That makes two straight wins for the Padres but that is where it gets capped as they have yet to win more than two straight this season. The offense broke out for six runs but it was still another poor hitting night as San Diego has now hit .233 or worse in four of its last five games and has averaged only 2.8 rpg over its last six games. The Padres are hitting just .233 against lefties.

The Rockies were shutout for the second time this season but I expect a big bounce back here. They struggled to start the season by averaging just 1.7 rpg in their first seven games but upped that to 6.8 rpg in their next five games before last night. Colorado has won four of its last seven games after starting the year 1-5. The loss last night snapped a five-game winning streak in this series but the Rockies are still a solid 53-26 in their last 79 against a team with a winning record dating back to last season.

When we get down to the bottom rotation starters, it is time to look to go against them. When that pitcher is the 5th starter and has yet to allow a run in his first two starts, we really take a look at a go against. That is the case with Justin Germano who has not allowed a run in his first two starts of the season. That may line the public behind him, but I am clearly going the other way. San Diego has scored one run in those games and run support is contagious. He is 0-3 with an 8.34 ERA in five starts against the Rockies.

I have never been high on Mark Redman but he has been solid for Colorado and he does have some good things going his way here. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings against Arizona in his season opener, but allowed two runs in five innings against the Braves last time out. Most important, there were no walks unlike the first outing which showed some uncharacteristic wildness. He has a 3.86 ERA since coming to the Rockies last season and in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, he has a 1.74 career ERA covering 10.1 innings.

Play Colorado Rockies 1.5 Units

Matt Fargo went 1-1 with his MLB plays last night, winning with Boston and dropping the Rockies underdog release but we hop back on that winning train tonight! MLB Top Plays are on a 5-2 run and MLB has profited +12.8 Units since April 6th! Game of the Month releases are 2-0 on the season and extended with a huge A.L. Game of the Month Winner! Bring this monster home!

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