Ben Burns
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians (MLB) - Apr 2, 2008 7:05 PM EDT
Play: Total: 8.5/106 Under

Pick Title: Member Pick

These teams played a very high-scoring (10-8) game against each other on Opening Day. I'm expecting to see some better pitching this evening though. The price on Cleveland has dropped, due in part to the possible absence of Victor Martinez. While the Indians would surely prefer to have their All-Star catcher in the lineup, it should be noted that Martinez is only 3-for-18 (.167) lifetime against Vazquez, so his potential absence may not be as costly as most are assuming.

Regardless of whether or not Martinez is in the lineup (I'm assuming he won't play) I feel that the Indians will have some trouble against Vazquez today. Vazquez quietly had a strong 2007 campaign, leading the Sox in both wins and strikeouts while recording a respectable 3.74 ERA, his best mark in years. He also had a solid spring and pitched well against the Indians last season. Note that Vazquez has seen the UNDER go 13-7 his last 20 starts in the month of April. While he struggled in the playoffs, Carmona was flat out nasty last regular season, going 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA. After going 3-1 and posting a 3.48 ERA in the spring and throwing 99 pitches in his final tuneup, Cleveland manager Eric Wedge had the following to say: "I think Fausto did a good job with his rhythm and tempo. He used all of his pitches, and he was down with them. We wanted him at around 100 pitches. That's where we wanted him to be. He's been very consistent all spring."

Even including the two postseason losses at Boston, which both finished above the number, Carmona has still seen the UNDER go 14-4 his last 18 starts, including an 8-2 mark his last 10 here at Cleveland. Don't be surprised when those numbers improve this evening.

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