Platinum MLB

[ThePlatinumStandard]

For the next several months I will hopefully add to the winners this forum already provides day in and day out. Enough winners for those following to build a huge bankroll for the upcoming football season. I am looking at 200 units in the next 90 days just in MLB action. Laugh at it, play it, or just ignore it. Consider this an early x-mas present to this forum when it works out.

Since I am new here, all I would like in return is some positivity, whether this turns out over or under the predicted amount. They aren't just picks with a dollar amount, as I will always have a write-up to go along with it most of the time. There will be anywhere from 3-5 plays on most days. This will continue for 3 months watch it for a few weeks to see if it is actually legit, and yes it is straight from me, not a copy of someone else's stuff. It might be called an outrageous claim, but if this works out there will be alot of members with higher balances with their sportsbooks!

Hopefully the forum will enjoy this thread! Thank You!


JUNE 3,2009

$500 Angels/Jays UNDER 9

This game will likely cruise to the under. Last night these teams went over and considering the fact that they have played the under 13 of the last 17, it should make for a great call tonight. Weaver faces Janssen. Weaver has yet to face the Jays in Toronto, but at home he has made a name for himself vs. this club. Toronto has averaged about 3 runs per game when Weaver starts. Janssen is on the verge of making a name for himself after some quality outputs this year. He has allowed 3 ERs in each of his 2 starts with both being 6 innings and 7 innings respectively. In his career he has failed to allow a run to the Angels just yet. In 2 outings back in 2006, he pitched over 15 innings of scoreless baseball. I suspect he will get it done tonight in a 3-1 final.

[ThePlatinumStandard]

Yesterday: Angels/Jays Under pushed

Janssen hadn't allowed a run in 2 straight games vs. LA and gets tagged early.
Jesse Carlson had 2 and 1/3 relief vs. LAA previously, no runs allowed. Yesterday, 3 hits 1 Earned. Rolen's error would've been out number two setting up the Figgens K. 6-1 should've been the final but the push stings, it don't hurt.

June 4th

Between the Sox and Dodgers we are looking at a 75% win ratio meaning that we will win 3 of the next 4 of these selections.


$1000 Boston Red Sox -125
Boston is on fire right now, things are clicking, guys are starting to hit and drive in runs and that spells trouble for the AL. Detroit is being outscored and outplayed by Boston. I see this continuing today. Willis had a rough return this year but had 2 solid home starts to follow. He then fell off in his last start allowing 7 ERs. Is this a sign of games to come? I think the Sox will struggle against him a bit but have not faced him since 2006. Willis is not the same pitcher as he was then. Regardless, he will either pitch badly which will lead to a blow-out, or pitch well, but only go 5 innings. That is what my take on this game is. Wakefield has had good numbers vs. Det. Last year he went 13 innings in 2 starts allowing 1 ER, including a shutout. Play the road fave today!


$500 LA Dodgers -105
Looks like the Phills and Dodgers meet yet again. I would not put too much weight on Kershaw in his last two against Philly as he was on the road. He is better at home. Which brings me to Hamels, who has settled down this season, owns LA no matter where they play, but he has a 6+ ERA on the season on the road. The home team in this series last year was 11-2 during the regular season. LA is still serving payback for the playoff loss last year. Both starters have lost 5-3 games this year, in Philly. Look for Kershaw to outduel Hamels for the win tonight.

$300 Indians/Twins Under 9.5
I feel that the best total on the board is right in this game and here is why...Both Carmona and Baker have drastic changes in numbers comparing the Minnesota ballpark to the Cleveland park. Stats are like night and day. Baker in Cleveland, allowed 15 ERs, 28 inngs, last 5 starts. Baker at home vs. Cle, allowed 4 ERs, over 20 inngs, last 3. Carmona at home vs. Min, 13 ERs, 17.33 inngs, last 3. Carmona in Minny, 5 ERs in 22 innings in his last 3 there. Going by those drastic numbers they are both pitching in the right ballpark today. This one may get to 9 runs but should stay under that 9.5 for the win!

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

Good luck amigo

[ThePlatinumStandard]

Originally Posted by Qbins Missile Crisis

Good luck amigo

Thanks QMC!!




Okay, in case anyone had questions, I will explain in more detail exactly how these selections are to be played. I have a database with 5 MLB angles with 16 sub angles all together. Based off of several years of history and stats, along with all around team statistics.

The highest platform play will read 10 units or $1000. This is the best scenario worth of plays, hitting at a tenth under 70% over the last several seasons. These should bring in half the predicted units. The other ratios equal in the upper 50% - low 60% range, winning mostly with underdogs and totals. These will range anywhere from 1 unit to 6 or 7 units. The 6 and 7 unit plays are very rare and will only be seen once in a blue moon. I am looking at worst case scenario 40-18 on average reamaining for 10 unit plays, and 80-40 for combined remaining sides if this continues to work out.

Totals will be above .500 for this segment and should add to the fund.
If playing for a smaller amount, obviously many will start small if following, I suggest breaking down the listed units to where you feel comfortable. Leave room for at least 3 big days worth of plays. Usually Mon/Tuesdays and Fridays are the biggest days of the week. I wouldn't just let it ride on any given night as it could put you out of playing for good. Best to maybe sit back and watch for a week or even just play the 10 unit ones to start building as they are the most solid.

As for the plays themselves, all totals are usually listed pitchers with most sportsbooks and that is how I usually play them. Sides are always action, regardless of starter, we are playing the team itself in that spot. All listed units are to win that amount. So alot of 10 unit plays will be risking a bit more to win the 10 units.

Four of the angles are based on previous statistics. It gives me a win pct, and units are based off of those numbers. For example: the 10 unit plays hit at roughly 70% consistantly on average over years of research in MLB. The worst angle actually shows an average of 54-44 yearly which isn't much but shows a profit of a near 50 units based on playing 300 pp. The other angle shows an 85-54 mark per season. This also includes some 70% plays.

Sure hope this helped. It is a lot of info but it is needed for those with questions.

Today's plays to follow shortly!

[ThePlatinumStandard]

End date/deadline: 8/31/09

The Standard: 200 units by the deadline
Current standing: 1.45 units
Units remaining: 198.55

First 4 plays:
Angels/Jays under 9 PUSH
Red Sox -125 Win 10 units
Indians/Twins under 9.5 Loss -3.3 units
LA Dodgers -105 Loss -5.25 units


June 5th

$1000 Detroit -170
LA took 2 of 3 this season at home from Detroit. Look for the Tigers to return the favor. LA has not had an easy time putting win streaks together this season. Streaks of 3 or more games have not happened in about a month, and they have failed on their previous 3 chances. Tigers were embarrassed yesterday pulling Willis early, and will bounce back today despite heavy juice. Ervin Santana has struggled most recently allowing 15 ERs in his last 2 games. He has struggled with Detroit in the past and mind frame wise it may not be a good situation for him tonight. Verlander will counter and he too has struggled at times vs. Angels, but has put together one solid outing after another and looks like the old Verlander from a couple years ago. Need to stay away from Santana right now and I feel this is a great spot for Detroit to get the W.

$1000 Toronto +135
Greinke may just be up for a little letdown after coming off of his worst outing of this season. Greinke only has one loss on the year but his club has lost 3 of the last 5 outings. The Royals are not a good team to bet as they just keep losing. Although Greinke has earned backers decent money there should be no reason to lay money on the road with a team that is struggling. He most likely will not get run support tonight and cost backers more money, even if he pitches well. Romero will oppose Greinke and has struggled against AL east opponents. Outside the division, no problem as he has allowed 4 ERs in 21 innings. Take the Jays as they were once on this downward spiral and have an easier task than they've had of late.

$500 NY Mets +105
Tim Redding is looking at a match-up with his old team tonight. He may just get his chance to have his old team make him look like a superstar when the Nats host the Mets Friday night. Now the Nats are the decade's worst, no doubt, and if you look at their track record as faves and in series game 1's you would steer clear of them regardless what the match-up shows. Nats are 3-7 as faves this season, all home games. The three wins were actually -123 and higher. For the ones in the -110 to -120 range, they are 0-4 as faves. In opening series games this year they are a miserable 4-14. The Mets are 7-1 vs. Wsh in the last 8 meetings, and have won 25 of the last 32 on the road there. Even with a banged up line-up Redding should have enough motivation to defeat Martis, who gave up 6 ERs in his lone meeting with NY, last season. He lasted just 3 inngs. He has allowed 17 ERs in his last 3 starts and 10 ERs in his last 2 at home.

$500 Arizona +105
Look for the motivational edge for Davis as he pitched brilliantly in his last meeting with Gaudin and the Pads. He allowed just 2 ERs but his team lost a 9-7 game at home. Now they are in SD with revenge on their minds with these two starters rematching. Last season Davis shutout SD over 8+ innings. he pitches pretty good in Petco Park. Zona can hit Chad Gaudin. Gaudin has not had two solid outings in a row yet, and looks shaky at times, especially after a good outing. This season after shutting out Colorado over 5 innings he followed up with a 6 ER performance in LA. After a solid home outing vs. SF, he allowed 7 ERs to this same Arizona team. Davis will get the win tonight along with his team as they avenge the previous loss at home, winning in SD tonight.

$500 Orioles/A's Under 8.5
Look for Guthrie and Braden to keep this one under the total of 8.5 runs. The O's are on a downswing after winning 9 in a row. They have lost 4 of their last 5. This losing sstreak will continue tonight but more importantly this one will stay under. Guthrie is 4-4 with a 4.86 ERA while Braden is 4-5 with a 3.63 ERA. Over the last 2 seasons, Guthrie has done well against the A's. He allowed just 5 ERs in 3 previous starts against them. On the road, in Oakland he has averaged 1 ER per 3 innings. Braden has also previously faced the O's, 3 times over the last 2 seasons. They were all 1 ER performances, averaging 6 innings pitched per game. The O's have scored just 2 runs in all those 3 games. Look for a 5 run final here.

$300 Texas +125
Kevin Millwood has a shockingly low ERA as a Rangers starter. A 3.23 to be exact. That's pretty damn good when you think about how many runs Texas and opponents put up especially at home. Penny is 5-1 for the Sox and although his ERA is at a 5.63 he has the best record of any Sox starter right now. The ERA sells the struggle for Penny and it proves the Sox are scoring runs even when everyone thinks they aren't putting up enough. Millwood has been stellar away from home this year as far as innings pitched is concerned. He has gone 7 or more in all of his recent road starts. Look for a home letdown for Boston as the public is riding them. They will likely drop the first of the series. Penny is well overdue for a bad outing as he has not pitched bad in his last 3.

$200 Phills/Dodgers Over 9.5
Moyer will look to get rid of whatever the Dodgers hold over him tonight. Moyer has a 6.75 ERA in 2009 as he watches his career come to an end. He has allowed 15 ERs in his last 4 road starts in just 20 innings. He also has allowed 16 ERs in his last 2 in LA, and 23 ERs in his last 3 vs. LA. Milton comes back with a vengeance after missing the bigs in all of 2008, with 3 strong outings in 09. This will be his first home start for his new club. He has only allowed 5 ERs in 3 starts this year and should pitch as good if not better at home. Milton should continue his dominance, and after getting shut down last night look for the LAD to explode for runs tonight.

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

Please record your YTD picks record in your signature file.
Thanks

[ThePlatinumStandard]

End date/deadline: 8/31/09

The Standard: 200 units by the deadline

Yesterday: 4-3, +3.05 units

Current standing: 4.5 units
Units remaining: 195.5

JUNE 6th

$500 Cleveland/Chisox Over 9.5
Sowers has struggled mightily on the road and previously against the Chisox making this a good play for the over this afternoon. Sowers has a 12.60 ERA on the road this year, allowed 20 ER's in his last 4 road starts, and 18 ERs in his last 4 vs. Chicago. His last 3 of 4 outings vs. Sox were brutal, and I am banking that he will struggle again today. Floyd has started to pitch well but his last 3 vs. Cleveland have gone over the total. This is a rematch from a 9-7 game last season these starters were involved in. Between the starters and bullpens this one should reach double digits today.

$200 Seattle/Minnesota Over 7.5(Bookmaker)
Blackburn and Washburn have both pitched well recently. Both these teams are capable of hitting, and after a low output last night, I expect this one to reach 9 runs in the least. It is very do-able. Each starter should give up 3 a piece, setting up for a few late runs by either one or both clubs. The over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Seattle.

$200 Mets/Washington Over 9
Even though the Nats are dead even just about with overs/unders on the season it is really taking a risk playing under the total. Even though both Maine and Lannan have shined at times vs. these line-ups they also have been struggling in this spot. Maine has struggled on the road this year and opponents are averaging 5 runs per game over his last 5 on road. Lannan has struggled in 2 of his last 3 vs. NY allowing 5 ERs in the 2 bad outings. He has allowed 4+ runs in 4 of his last 6 vs. NY. The Nats had a strong showing by their bullpen up until the 10th last night and I feel it won't go so smoothly tonight.

$200 Colorado/St. Louis Under 8.5
All signs point to an over in this one with Cook and Wellemeyer slated to start. Usually when a total looks to good to be true it is. The public will jump on the over with this low total but I feel it has a shot at the under tonight. I would assume Cook will go 6 or 7 and Wellemeyer at least 5. Here are some interesting trends that have formed for this games situation tonight. Under is 11-5-1 last 17 mtgs in STL. In Cards last 11 home gms under is 9-2. Wellemeyer is surprisingly 4-0 to the under in his last 4 as fave. Rocks are 12-3-2 to the under in their last 17 as a dog.

[TheWiesguy]

Great call on the Jays yesterday!

[ThePlatinumStandard]

End date/deadline: 8/31/09

The Standard: 200 units by the deadline

Yesterday: 0-4, -12.1 units

Current standing: -8.4 units
Units remaining: 208.4

Funny how I was on the losing end of all 4, with every starter having his best worst outing vs. opponent.
Sowers and Floyd pitched career bests vs. opponents.
Blackburn and Washburn did the same.
Maine had his career wordt vs. Wsh, but Lannan had his best start ever in his career still costing me an over.
Lastly, the Rockies have Cook pitch his best vs. STL while Wellemeyer pitched his worst and count em, on 3 occasions the Rockies homered with 2 outs in that one.

Need to bounce back big today but I am keeping it light.

JUNE 7th

$300 Col/StL UNDER 8.5
After Colorado has had an output of massive run support, I feel as though today they will be stifled by one Joel Pineiro. Pineiro has shut the door on many teams this season at home with a 2.05 ERA there. He did allow 3 in Colorado last year but has not faced them at home this year. Pineiro has gone 30 innings+ over his last 4 home starts allowing just 7 ERs. He is coming off a not so good performance so look for the bounceback here. Jiminez counters for Colorado who has somehow gotten the good pitching needed to win games. Jiminez faced the Cards twice last year allowing 6 ERs over 10 innings. He should keep STL limited while Pineiro does the rest to get the Cards on the board for an under in this series.

$250 TB/NYY UNDER 9.5
We find Garza meeting Joba C. today in the early of the 3 picks. Joba has never faced TB but as the season has gone on he looks more and more comfortable. In the home start vs. Cle back in April he allowed 5 in less than 5. His next he went over 5 allowing just 4 and his most recent start of quality was a 6 inning, 2 ER outing before leaving his last home start in the 1st inning. Even with the bugs and birds in Cleveland, in his last start, he pitched 8 innings allowing 2. Garza did shut the door on the Yanks this season in a 7 inning, 2 ER performance so look for him to help keep this one under. Surprisingly the Rays have gone 6-0-1 under vs. a righty with a WHIP of 1.30+. Scott Barry will ump the plate today and 20 of his last 28 behind plate have gone under.

$200 San Diego +150
The thing I like about this one is that the Pads come off the win last night and send Josh Geer to the hill to face Danny Haren. Pads have taken the last 7 of 10 meetings between these clubs. Geer is only averaging 2 ERs on home field in his last 5 home starts. He is fighting to stay in the rotation as he has come on in relief a couple times this season. Look for him to have a good performance against an Arizona team in the - money on the year, and a team struggling for run support. Haren would need to pitch better than he has previously against SD to get his team the W. Haren also is averaging 2 ERs allowed over his last 5 but has not gotten support from his pen as opponents have finished with 4 runs on average in those 5 games. Especially his last 2 outings, 15 total runs allowed. Pads by 1.

I like your Yankees call