Yankees vs. Reds Run Line Free Pick

[Shame About Ray]

There's value in online MLB wagering using the sports betting run-line (spread) but it can be dangerous laying the -1½ runs on a favored home team, however, sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and hope giving away three-outs doesn't bury you if you took the homies and they lead by only one run in the bottom of the ninth inning. But that's exactly what I'm doing Friday in hopes of an easy win by the red-hot Yanks.

Cincinnati Reds (33-41) vs. New York Yankees (40-33)



The Cincinnati Reds last visited Yankee Stadium nearly 32 years ago and were far superior to the Bronx Bombers during the era that featured Pete Rose, Johnny Bench and Joe Morgan as the ''Big Red Machine'' posted a four-game sweep of the 1976 World Series. It was the third Fall Classic matchup between the clubs, with the Yankees having claimed victory in 1939 and 1961.

The Reds are arguably sending its worst team in recent years to the diamond on a regular basis. With the Yankees riding their best streak of the season and the Reds having equaled their worst, this will become apparent to the online MLB betting community that watches this three-game series that begins on Friday with Mike Mussina facing Edinson Volquez.

New York has won seven contests in a row overall and has been feasting on interleague play, coming off consecutive three-game sweeps of the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres. Since May 20, the Yankees have a 20-8 record and are a season-best seven games above 500.

Key New York MLB Online Gambling Trends:

- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games.
- Yankees are 21-7 in their last 28 vs. National League Central.
- Yankees are 39-12 in their last 51 interleague home games.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.

The Reds, meanwhile, have matched season highs by losing five straight games and falling eight below .500 while spiraling into last place in the NL Central.

Key Cincinnati MLB Online Gambling Trends:

- Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 Friday games.
- Reds are 8-18 in their last 26 during Game 1 of a series.
- Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
- Reds are 16-35 in their last 51 interleague road games.
- Reds are 6-17 in their last 23 road games.
- Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Mussina (10-4, 3.87 ERA), who is unbeaten in his last five starts and is tied for the AL lead in wins, will climb the hill for New York. Since a slow start, he has gone 9-1 with a 3.25 ERA in his last 11 trips to the bump with just eight walks in 61 innings of work. Mussina lost his only career start against the Reds in 2003.

- Yankees are 9-2 in Mussinas last 11 starts.
- Yankees are 5-1 in Mussinas last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 9-3 in Mussinas last 12 interleague starts.
- Yankees are 11-5 in Mussinas last 16 starts as a favorite.

Volquez (9-2, 1.64 ERA), the major league leader in ERA, strikeouts (105) and opponent BA (.190), will toe the rubber for the Reds in the series-opener. He’s 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA in seven road starts, striking out 54 in 43 2-3 innings. Volquez has not allowed more than three runs in a game this season.

- Reds are 7-1 in Volquezs last 8 starts.
- Reds are 7-1 in Volquezs last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 5-1 in Volquezs last 6 road starts.
- Reds are 4-1 in Volquezs last 5 starts as an underdog.

Analysis: Not to take anything away from Volquez, but if Cincinnati's offense continues to struggle this guy's numbers will begin dropping off rapidly. The Reds are coming off a money-shredding 2-7 home-stand during which they scored just 21 runs and hit .188, including 6-for-57 (.105) with runners in scoring position. If you pull for the Reds, you have to hope playing on such a bad club doesn't get to Volquez' psyche.

Free MLB Picks: New York Yankees -1½ +130 (7:05 pm EST)

BetUS MLB odds are giving the Bronx Bombers the edge in Game 1, pricing the Yankees favorites at -150 on the money-line with a game total of 9 under -125.

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