While you've been searching the Net for Mint Julep recipes, the Bodog Beat has been following the workouts closely and now that we've done our homework, we're ready to layout our prediction as post time nears for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby. Here are three horses we think will win, place and show at Churchill Downs along with the stats on the top three by Bodog's racing expert Steve Davidowitz. Below is the predicted order of win/place/show finish for the Kentucky Derby. (Odds in parentheses are subject to change.)
Big Brown (3/1): Trainer: Rick Dutrow. Jockey: Kent Desormeaux; 3-1. Undefeated winner of the Florida Derby in fast time from post 12 on March 29. Has been working fast at the Palm Meadows training center but only a few people and the pine trees have seen what he did and how he's done it. Nevertheless, the reported clockings and fractional splits were excellent if accurate: 5 furlongs in 1:00.60 on April 18 and 58.60 with a gallop out in 1:11 on April 24. Seen on the CD racetrack for the first time on Tuesday, April 29, Big Brown looked the picture of health, galloping a relatively quick 1-1/2 miles, smoothly and with considerable energy. On Wednesday, he was not as active, but still looked the part of a top horse in top shape. Dutrow plans to "blow him out" a short 3 furlongs in a relatively slow 37 seconds on Thursday. Seems quite fit, composed, with no real sign of the foot problems that derailed him last fall. Based on my visual impression of his gallop over the track, more than the fast Palm Meadows workout, he seems fit to fire from his difficult post.
Colonel John (5/1): Trainer: Eoin Harty. Jockey: Corey Nakatani; 4-1. Won Santa Anita Derby April 5 with strong late surge. Turned in a blistering 5-furlong work in 57.80 with minimal pressure from the exercise rider on an extremely fast CD surface April 27. Looked as if he paid a price for that workout in his next appearance on the track, but rebounded nicely with positive gallop Wednesday, April 30. Might upgrade to Grade B+ or even Grade A if he regains all of his energy by Friday. So I would encourage readers to check the Daily Racing Form for final workout clues from DRF staff to assess his true condition late in the week
Pyro (7/1): Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan; 6-1. Won Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby with good rallies in February and March. Clockers missed his 6-furlong work in company with older sprinter Noonmark at Keeneland on April 21; nevertheless, his half-mile breeze over this track April 28 was much better than the modest 48.20 clocking. Finished strongly and also galloped out well. Seems to be recovering his form, which makes him dangerous if the pace should get hot. Get all your Kentucky Derby betting in the Bodog Racebook before time runs out.
Kentucky Derby post time: Saturday, 6:04 ET on NBC.
Kentucky Derby forecast: 73 degrees sunny/partly cloudy.
- Bodog Beat
05-02-2008, 01:51 PM
Kentucky Derby Rundown as Post Time Nears 
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