2008 Kentucky Derby Betting - Speed Figures Are a Key Derby

[Shame About Ray]

The 134th Derby is difficult for online Kentucky Derby betting fanatics to handicap for several reasons ranging from speed figures to varying track surfaces.

For instance, a dozen contenders won 14 key preps from February through April. The only two-time winners, Pyro and Colonel John, haven’t posted a triple-digit figure this year.

Pyro ran a dismal 10th in the Blue Grass on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The son of Pulpit and six other colts finished fifth or worse in their final prep. The last horse to triumph at Churchill Downs after running that poorly or worse in the final prep was Iron Liege, fifth in ’57.

Colonel John is yet to run on the dirt. Nearly half of the prospective field had one or more preps on synthetic surfaces.

So what’s a handicapper to do? One key to success just might lie in the speed figures posted in preps regardless of surfaces.

I believe Derby history sheds some light on the subject. In the last 16 years, only two winners failed to post a triple-digit Beyer speed number in any of their final three starts: Sea Hero in ’93 and Giacomo in ’05. Both recorded the lowest two winning figures during that time span.

From ’92 through ’07, a dozen Derby champs earned or matched the highest speed figure in one of their final two preps. The longest streak ran from ’96 through ’04 when several of the top Beyers were posted: Silver Charm, 115 in ’97; Monarchos, 116 in ’01; and War Emblem, 114 in ’02.

This year’s speed figures in preps among the expected 20 Derby starters appear lower than usual.

Only five have cracked the triple-digit mark, including Big Black Jack, who posted the highest Beyer, 109, but that was winning at six furlongs in the Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita on Jan. 26. Since then he averaged 94 running second and third in routes on the cushion track.

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