Three times this season heavily backed favorites have run so poorly in important Kentucky Derby prep races that serious doubts have been raised about their chances to win America's most famous race.
First, unbeaten War Pass finished last as the prohibitive betting favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 15th. More recently, odds on favorite Denis of Cork seemed to be running uphill when fifth in the Illinois Derby on April 5th. And of course, Pyro never got out of his own way while finishing tenth in the Blue Grass Stakes on Keeneland's Polytrack last Saturday.
War Pass' defeat was blamed on the Tampa Bay racing surface by his connections but it might also have been due to a brief fever he endured several days before his surprisingly weak performance.
Denis of Cork simply may have been babied too much by his connections and not been properly prepared for a truly competitive contest. He certainly wasn't ready to deal with a much improved Recapturetheglory who led every step of the way in the Illinois Derby and looked even stronger passing the finish line than at any stage of that nine-furlong contest.
Pyro? The prevailing view is that he didn't like running on Keeneland's synthetic racing surface at all; that he is sure to rebound with a solid stretch running effort on Churchill Downs' dirt track in the Kentucky Derby; that the expected hot pace is likely to give his stretch running style every chance to make a major impression. But even trainer Steve Asmussen said that he now has to go back to the drawing board for the final three weeks of training.
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