2008 US Open Preview

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - The South Course at Torrey Pines sits on land that used to be part of a naval training center. You'd almost have to be a SEAL to want to walk it.

At 7,643 yards, the San Diego muni is set to become the longest course in U.S. Open history this week. Which is saying something considering the torturous conditions the United States Golf Association sets up each year for the second major.

It's like some sort of twisted, grand science experiment: long, narrow and deep are just three of the words that can most accurately describe conditions at a U.S. Open course from one year to the next.

There are other words, of course, but we can't print them here.

Torrey Pines' length gets a lot of attention, and for good reason. It's 379 yards longer than any other U.S. Open course. But it's not the only obstacle players are worried about.

At his one-day Exelon Invitational last week, Jim Furyk explained why he has only played sparingly at Torrey Pines in his career. It had nothing to do with length.

"You can't make golf courses long enough anymore," said Furyk, the 2003 U.S. Open winner at 7,100-yard Olympia Fields. "The golf course concerns me because it is hard."

But how hard?

The fairways will be typically narrow for a U.S. Open, ranging in width from about 24 yards to 33 yards at their widest. Where the players will get a little bit of a break this year is in the rough.

In the third round at Winged Foot two years ago, Colin Montgomerie made a double-bogey at the par-three third after he found the deep rough in front of a greenside bunker, duffed a flop shot into that bunker, then two-putted for a five.

"Bloody hell!" were just two of the descriptive words the Scotsman shouted.

The deepest rough at Winged Foot that year -- the stuff Monty was hitting from -- was cut to about six inches. It was difficult enough to just walk through the grass, let alone take a shot out of it. The USGA cut the deep rough at Oakmont to the same length last year.

This year, in line with its "penalty fits the crime" plan for U.S. Opens, the USGA will cut three bands of rough on both sides of the fairways to different lengths. But the longest rough will measure only 3 1/2 inches -- nearly half the length of the last two years.

Things get tougher around the greens, however, where any shot more than 12 feet offline will find rough cut to four inches.

This type of grooming is just one of the reasons Tiger Woods claimed the Average Joe wouldn't have been able to break 100 at last year's U.S. Open, when Angel Cabrera's winning score was a five-over 285.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, singer Justin Timberlake, "Today" host Matt Lauer and amateur John Atkinson, stricken with inoperable lung cancer, set out to prove Woods wrong.

They did, and they didn't.

Playing at Torrey Pines last week, Romo shot a 13-over 84 and Timberlake had a 27-over 98. Lauer landed right on the number at 100, and Atkinson shot a 114.

So two of the players actually broke 100, and Romo's score will probably end up looking OK to some of the players who are sure to struggle this weekend (six players posted scores of 85 or worse at Oakmont, including 2002 PGA Championship winner Rich Beem).

But none of them were able to make a birdie at Torrey Pines, showing the U.S. Open course is manageable for the very good amateur golfer, but not conquerable.

So who's got the game -- and the intangibles -- to win this week?

Woods leads the list of contenders, despite the fact that he hasn't played a competitive round since having knee surgery two days after he lost to Trevor Immelman at the Masters.

The world No. 1 and two-time U.S. Open champion has dominated Torrey Pines in his career, winning six Buick Invitationals on the city course, including the last four. Playing on the North and South courses, he won by a whopping eight shots in January.

"This is the Tiger Woods Invitational, isn't it?" quipped Ryuji Imada, his distant runner-up.

Imada had earlier called Woods almost unbeatable. And a colleague at the My Sportsbook wondered, as Woods missed only one green in the second round and began to build his lead, if he wasn't already practicing for the U.S. Open.

Woods hasn't won a U.S. Open since Bethpage Black in 2002, two years after he won his first at Pebble Beach in 2000 -- the last time before this year that a U.S. Open course played to a par of 71. Woods also finished runner-up to Michael Campbell in 2005 and placed third in 1999, both at Pinehurst No. 2.

His length means shorter clubs into the greens, and his strength helps him out of the rough. With his failure to catch Cabrera last season -- and his inability to catch Zach Johnson and Trevor Immelman at the last two Masters -- Woods has had a few close calls in majors over the last two seasons to go along with his three wins.

He will be in contention on the weekend.

Phil Mickelson's disastrous finish at Winged Foot in 2006 was followed by a missed cut at Oakmont last year, but Torrey Pines is a course he knows too well. The San Diego native will be close to home, playing on a course where he has won three Buick Invitationals.

Lefty has probably the best short game in golf -- he carried five wedges in his bag while winning at Colonial three weeks ago -- which makes him a threat everywhere. And he's got the length to compete on the long U.S. Open courses.

Mickelson will win a U.S. Open before he's finished playing, and it could very well happen this week. He'll play with Woods and Adam Scott in the feature threesome the first two rounds.

Outside of the two favorites, there are some interesting choices.

Sergio Garcia is still the new "Best Player Never to Have Won a Major" and his victory at the Players Championship went a long way towards proving the talented Spaniard could close out a big tournament -- the same way losing the British Open last year went a long way towards proving he couldn't.

Scott, the world No. 3, is recovering from a broken little finger and a recent bout with an illness; Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen have had middling success at the most recent U.S. Opens; and Furyk has all but counted himself out.

The long-hitters -- including the defending champion Cabrera and fellow bombers Bubba Watson and J.B. Holmes -- will be fun to watch on the lengthy course, and their prowess off the tee cannot be discounted.

Anthony Kim, the 22-year-old Wachovia Championship winner, is also long off the tee. But can players like that -- the "grip it and rip it" set, accuracy be damned -- make runs at the U.S. Open?

Cabrera proved last year that they can.

Still, as far as this writer is concerned, playing on the toughest courses will always whittle the contenders down to the best players. Woods and Mickelson are those two players -- and they've got winning histories at Torrey Pines, to boot.

They are the easy choices, but the right ones, to win this week.

Of course, I've picked an American to win the last two U.S. Opens, only to see an international player with a well-respected game win both times. Which is why I've changed my mind just now.

Andres Romero will be your U.S. Open champion.

(As long as Tiger and Phil both lose, of course.)