Yankees vs. Mets for playoff spot

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

Yankees a better playoff bet

So the Mets and Yankees are both struggling to stay over .500. That doesn’t really mean a lot after just one month of baseball; there’s plenty of time left for either team to climb up or fall down the standings. But the Yankees are a better bet to rise up and make the playoffs than their New York counterparts.

Let’s jump straight into the nerd numbers. On Tuesday afternoon, the PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds at Baseball Prospectus had the Yankees at 70.6 percent to make the postseason. The Mets were 67.8 percent. The gap between the two is even wider when adjusting for Elo Ratings: 46.0 percent for the Yankees and 31.5 percent for the Mets.

The PECOTA projections for both teams look a bit optimistic right now – but injuries have been a big problem in the Big Apple. The Yankees have missed three of their best hitters for extended periods: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada. All three should be fine in a matter of weeks.

That might not be the case for Pedro Martinez. He was supposed to be the No. 2 starter in the Mets’ rotation behind incoming Johan Santana, but a strained left hamstring will keep him out another two weeks before he even starts throwing in the bullpen. At age 36, Martinez hasn’t played a full season since 2005 and may never return to effectiveness.

The Mets are doomed if they can’t get some quality starts from the back end of the rotation. Oliver Perez has just one in seven trips to the mound. Mike Pelfrey and Nelson Figueroa combined for three quality starts in nine attempts. The Yankees have their own issues with Phil Hughes injured and Ian Kennedy sent to the minors, but Darrell Rasner was superb in Sunday’s 8-2 win over the Seattle Mariners. The Mets have Claudio Vargas waiting at AAA-New Orleans, but he got lit up on Saturday for six runs in four innings.

As important as Martinez is, health is even more of a concern for the Mets’ batting order. Carlos Delgado, 36 years old in June, appears to be done as a useful everyday player with a .682 OPS and just four home runs in 31 games. Moises Alou (42 in July) is just coming back from a hernia operation in March. The Mets as a team have a lousy .708 OPS, while the Yankees are cruising at .746 OPS even with their early injuries.

With the National League East turning into a four-way race featuring the Mets, Phillies, Marlins and Braves, the Yankees have the easier path to the playoffs as well as the talent to get there – for the 14th year in a row.

Mets a better playoff bet

Neither the New York Mets or the New York Yankees have turned in blistering starts to the 2008 campaign, but it’s the Mets that have the better shot at rebounding this season. David Wright and company will get their act together and win the NL East division (or at least the NL Wild Card), while the other NY club will miss the postseason.

Why will the Bronx Bombers fail to advance to October this year? Well, the name ‘Kei Igawa’ has already come up in discussions about their starting staff, and that’s a huge red flag. Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy were both disasters on the mound in April, which means the Yanks will have to dig into the minors or risk blowing up Joba Chamberlain’s arm to stabilize their rotation. Throw in injuries to ARod and Jorge Posada, plus the ugly numbers of Jason Giambi and Robinson Cano, and you have a team going in the tank.

The biggest thing going for the Mets? It’s not Johan Santana or Wright or Billy Wagner, but the fact that they don’t have to chase down the Boston Red Sox to win their division title. The Mets simply have to fend off challenges by the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves, and wait for the Florida Marlins to fade away. Sure, the Mets botched their chances at a division title last season, but you have to think they learned from that.

Plus, you can’t discount the impact Santana will have on the pitching staff as a whole – every time he takes to the mound there’s a chance he’ll blank the opposing team, or strike out double-digit batters. If Santana was a member of the Mets last season do you really think they would have blown their big division lead in the last month of the year?

Of course, the Mets have had their troubles on the mound this year as well, but John Maine and Oliver Perez are dependable options behind Santana in the rotation. A healthy and effective Pedro Martinez would be helpful as well – and reports suggest that the righthander could return from the disabled list by the end of May. Fantasy owners are watching that situation closely – Martinez could be a boost for both them and the Mets.

At the plate the key trio of Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran have had their share of problems, yet the Mets are still near the top of the NL East. The rival Phillies, on the other hand, have been carried by the red-hot bats of Chase Utley and Pat Burrell. Once those two hit a dry spell, and the Mets’ guys get back to normal, the Mets will start to move ahead in the division race. Just-activated Moises Alou will help the Mets as well.

The Yankees get a larger share of the media attention in New York, but it’s their cross-town rival that will persevere and give the Big Apple some postseason games this fall.

Updated:May 07, 2008
By Jason Lake & Dave Crowley
Bodog Fantasy Insider