College Football Betting Influences

[Sampson]

I am curious as to whether playing for a team in the past or even attending the team's school in the past has influenced whether or not you bet on a certain team winning a college football game?

A wise man once told me never EVER bet on your favorite team...

[Sports Handicapper]

Assuming Qbins meant NEVER I have a tendency to agree, but I'll look at another way to think about it and few things I consider when handicapping college football games.

First I'll echo Qbins, never bet with your heart. But remember one important thing - your wallet is a long way from your heart!

To play devils advocate one could argue that playing on (or against) your favorite team(s) is actually the smartest thing you can do. Afterall, you probably know your own team better than any other. You follow them daily and have been for years. You know when they stumble and when they rise to the challenge. But still, can you ever be entirely objective about "your" team - probably not. In fact, you can often be overly critical.

With that being said, a great many people DO bet on their team for no other reason than it's their team. This is a chance for a handicapper to find an edge. There are some very popular "public teams" - teams that get a lot of action on them simply because they are people's favorite teams and have a huge following. In the 80s and 90s this was the 49ers and Cowboys, the Cowboys still (maybe again) today are a very popular team with casual fans who are even more casual gamblers. But if there enough of them it can (and does) influence the line. The Pats are an excellent example in 2007, they were beating everybody and beating them badly. The huge "Patriot Nation" were making money betting on their team. The line in Vegas caught up and late in the year they were no longer covering spreads. Now there was MUCH more at play to the faltering finish ATS but part of the dynamic each week when the Pats line came out each week was the huge popularity and amount of action on this team.
In college football we've recently seen this with USC. And Notre Dame is always a huge public team and for the regular season I consistently see 3-5 points in the Irish's favor because of their wide spread popularity. In bowl games, playing against the Irish has become easy money. Why? 2 reasons - both driven by public popularity of this team (at least in part). First, they are often overrated throughout the season and end up in a bowl game much higher than they deserve against a far superior team. Why do they end up here? TV ratings - the Irish will draw huge ratings so they get a better bowl game then they deserve because the game will draw fans and viewers. So now we have a hugely popular team in over their heads combined with the fact that bowl games get more action than regular season games Vegas much make adjustments for the public money being heavy on this team. Thus, easy money playing against. Their terrible ATS record in bowl games (especially recently) makes my case.

Good points Scott. And I have no problem with people betting on their own teams. Feel free. Go ahead, but if you're losing all the time on em because you're a Raiders fan for example....ouch, times will be tough! LOL