Troy vs. Oklahoma State Free CFB Pick

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

NCAA-F | Sep 27
Troy vs. Oklahoma State
Matt Fargo NCAAF Picks

Troy completely embarrassed the Cowboys last season as they never saw the Trojans coming. Oklahoma St. lost that game by 18 points and the finals score did not even tell the story as Troy had a 31-point lead entering the fourth quarter. The Trojans piled up 562 total yards in that game but it is important to note that the two best offensive players, quarterback Omar Haugabook and running back Kenny Cattouse have moved on. The Trojans offense is not nearly the same as last season.

The Cowboys meanwhile come into this year a perfect 3-0 and the offense may be even better than last season. Oklahoma St. finished last season 7th in total offense and 22nd in scoring offense. This year, the Cowboys are currently 5th in both total offense and scoring offense and they have improved their margins each game. Granted the last game came against Missouri St. but in the game prior to that, they racked up 699 yards of offense against Houston. They are rolling right now.

The cog to this offense is quarterback Zac Robinson as he is currently eighth in the country in passing efficiency. His first start as a Cowboy came last season in Troy and it was a game that he would like to forget as he was 18-37 for 191 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He no doubt remembers that game and would like nothing more than to turn it around here against the same team. Troy has been solid on defense but most of that success came against Alcorn St. in a 65-0 win.

Most of the offensive success came in that game as well as the Trojans put up 736 total yards of offense in that game. In the other two games against Middle Tennessee and Ohio St., Troy tallied 300 and 315 yards on offense respectively. The weakness of the Cowboys over the last few years has been the defense but they have been solid thus far as they are 29th in total defense after coming in 101st last season. That stop unit has a point to prove this time around after getting humiliated on the road last year in Troy.

Offense will be the key as Oklahoma St. is 13-4 ATS over the last three seasons when it scored 28 or more points. The Cowboys have scored 56 and 57 points in their last two games and they are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 50 or more points since 1992. Since 2003, the average point differential in six games is +22.7 ppg. Trot meanwhile is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after two or more consecutive spread wins. Look for the Cowboys to get their revenge in a big way here.

Play Oklahoma St. Cowboys 1.5 Units

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