North Texas Mean Green vs.Kansas State Wildcats Gambling Preview + Free Pick

[Shame About Ray]

North Texas Mean Green at Kansas State Wildcats

The North Texas Mean Green, members of the Sun Belt Conference, ventures out of conference and out of its own territory on Saturday when it goes to Manhattan, KS to face the Wildcats of Kansas State in the season opener for both teams, scheduled to get underway at 7:05 PM ET at Snyder Family Stadium (artificial turf).



BetUS NCAA Betting Odds: KANSAS STATE -26, Total 67.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* NT has lost 12 of its last 14 games SU
* NT has covered four of its last 17 road games
* NT has lost its last eight road games SU
* K-ST has lost five of its last six games SU
* K-ST has covered one of its last five games
* K-ST has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
* K-ST has won six of its last eight home games SU

One thing you can be assured of is that North Texas, which has in the past produced NCAA rushing champions like Patrick Cobbs and Jemario Thomas, is going to fill the air with footballs.

But Todd Dodge, the former Texas quarterback who rapidly built a legend as a high school coach before taking the job at North Texas, didn't quite envision this happening the way it did. He figured his son, a highly-recruited signal-caller from Southlake Carroll High School, would come into fold and lead the Mean Green to airborne glory. But alas, Riley Dodge has been beaten out by Giovanni Vizza, who will get the start in this game while father contemplates redshirting son.

This is not a complete and total upset. Vizza threw for 2388 yards and 17 touchdowns last year and was named the Sun Belt Conference freshman of the year. But in the process of operating Dodge's wide-open attack, which features four wide receivers, Vizza also tossed 20 interceptions.

So that's part of the challenge of meeting up with Kansas State and s secondary that brings back three starters. Of course, the upside is that the Wildcats were ranked 99th in pass defense a year ago. K-State has to find a running game somewhere - the leading returning rusher is Leon Patton, who had only 390 yards a year ago, but even if this offense is one-dimensional, relying on the arm of Josh Freeman (3353 yards, 18 TD's last season), it could take big chunks out of the North Texas defense, which is not a big point of emphasis for Dodge.

The Green was not so mean last year, ranking dead last in scoring defense, allowing 45 points a game. In moving outside the conference, this crew gave up 79 points to Oklahoma, 45 to SMU, 66 to Arkansas and 74 to Navy. So you see where the problem is. The "stop" unit beings back just four starters, and you can debate whether that's a good or a bad thing.

What we won't debate is that it is possible that Kansas State could take care of this over/under all by itself, do we will go OVER the 67.5-point total, as it is posted in the BetUS NCAA betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 67.5 ***

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NCAA-F: North Texas vs. Kansas State Picks
Aug 30, 2008
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