Illinois Fighting Illini visit Missouri Tigers

[Shame About Ray]

Illinois Fighting Illini visit Missouri Tigers

The Fighting Illini of Illinois come into this season with high hopes of upending Ohio State and Wisconsin for the Big Ten title. On Saturday they will face off against the Missouri Tigers, who are harboring national title aspirations, in what is technically a neutral site but is really Tiger territory - the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis (artificial turf).

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: MISSOURI -8.5, Total 59.5



Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* ILL has won four of its last five games SU
* ILL has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* ILL has covered seven of its last ten road games
* ILL has won four of its last six road games SU
* ILL has lost 20 of its last 25 road games SU
* ILL has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
* MIZZ has covered seven of its last ten games
* MIZZ has won seven of its last eight games SU
* MIZZ has won eight of its last nine home games SU
* MIZZ has played four of its last six home games UNDER the total

As we mentioned in the introduction, the prospects for these two teams may not be considerably different, but they are slightly different. While Illinois certainly hopes to win a Big Ten title and at the very least get back to a BCS bowl game, they are still looking up at Ohio State as the front-runner in the conference, while Missouri could reasonably be classified at this point as the best team in the Big 12.

You have to consider the upside of Juice Williams, who completed less than 39% of his passes as a freshman but improved that to 57% as a soph, and ran for 755 yards as well. And there is probably nowhere to go but upward for his main target, wide receiver Aurrelious Benn, who came to Champaign with a lot of pomp and circumstance and ended his first season with 54 catches for 676 yards.

However, at best Williams is a poor man's version of Missouri's terrific playmaker, Chase Daniel, the QB who finished with 68% completions and a sterling 33-11 ratio of TD's to interceptions operating the spread offense masterfully, and then came in fourth in the Heisman balloting. And Benn has miles to go before he offers the same kind of all-around threat put forward by Jeremy Maclin, who accounted for an amazing 2776 all-purpose yards as a FRESHMAN, and can do it all - rushing, receiving, and returning kicks. If Daniel doesn't win the Heisman this year, maybe Maclin will.

To further amplify the differences, consider that Missouri retains one member of its devastating tight end duo from last year, as Chase Coffman, son of former Green Bay standout Paul Coffman, returns to campus, while the Illini must cope with the loss of one of the most important players in college football last year - Rashard Mendenhall - whose explosive running style (did you see himin a losing cause in the Rose Bowl?) helped make it possible for Williams to be more effective with play action. That is a major void to fill.

Even though they lost five starters, the Tigers still bring more balance and continuity in their offense to the table. We'll lay the points with Missouri, the 8.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: MISSOURI -8.5 **

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