Week 1 Tulsa vs. UAB Betting Trends - Preview - Free Pick

[Shame About Ray]

Tulsa takes QB Issues to UAB

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-4 SU, 5-9 ATS in 2007) will now try to adjust to life without their departed quarterback as they take to the field against the Blazers of Alabama-Birmingham (2-10 SU, 6-5 ATS in 2007) in a Conference USA game that is scheduled to get underway at 4 PM ET on Saturday at Legion Field (artificial turf) in Birmingham, AL.




Saturday, August 30

BetUS NCAA Betting Odds: TULSA -13.5, Total 67

Here are some of the NCAA football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* TUL has covered three of its last 12 games
* TUL has won six of its last seven games SU
* TUL has played 17 of its last 25 games UNDER the total
* TUL has covered one of its last six road games
* TUL has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
* UAB has covered two of its last six games
* UAB has lost its last six games SU
* UAB has played seven of its last nine games UNDER the total
* UAB has lost five of its last seven home games SU

The huge loss in Tulsa is that of quarterback Paul Smith, who threw for 42 touchdowns last season with "only" 19 interceptions. Smith threw it 499 times in '07, and with an offensive design like this one, they are not going to let up that much. So the Hurricane will go with David Johnson, fifth-year senior with experience at least practicing in this offense, with Jacob Bower, a junior college transfer and a good one, getting significant time as well.

You can't lead the NCAA with 544 yards per game, score 48 or more points in five of your last six games, and top it off with a 63-7 romp in a bowl game (over Bowling Green) without having some other component parts on offense that are capable of much mischief. That is why the fact that Tarrion Adams (1113 rushing yards last year), Courtney Tennial (who ran for 845 yards tow years ago, then missed last year with an Achilles problem) and all the top receivers return should be a of great concern for opponents.

And yes, one of those opponents should be UAB, which gave up 488 yards per game, ranking 114th nationally. The front line surrendered 5.7 yards a carry, and that will be a worry since it will let Tulsa achieve some balance on offense.

Joe Webb, who takes over on a full-time basis at quarterback for the Blazers, is one of those triple-threat guys who should also be able to cause some chaos for the Tulsa defense, which ranked 108th nationally. But coach Todd Graham says he feels like this is his best defensive recruiting class.

We'll see. But as things loom, we have two "pitchers" who are not great "catchers." And the Golden Hurricane, at the moment, should be the more effective "pitcher." I doubt UAB will be able to trade points, and so we'll lay the points with Tulsa, the 13.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: TULSA -13.5 **