Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Baylor Bears Preview + Free Pick

[Shame About Ray]

Top 25 NCAA Football Matchup - Wake Forest at Baylor

The Baylor Bears (3-9 SU, 4-7 ATS in 2007), who haven't made any noise in the Big 12 for a while, will break in a new coach on Thursday (August 28) when they play host to the ACC's Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-4 SU & ATS in 2007) in an NCAA football matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Floyd Casey Stadium (natural turf) in Waco, TX.

BetUS NCAA Betting Odds: WAKE FOREST -13, Total 50.5

Here are some of the NCAA football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* WF has covered seven of its last eight games
* WF has won nine of its last 11 games SU
* WF has played seven of its last ten games OVER the total
* WF has covered 12 of its last 18 road games
* WF has won 10 of its last 14 road games SU
* WF has played five of its last six road games OVER the total
* BAY has lost its last eight games SU
* BAY has lost four of its last five home games SU

Art Briles, the architect of successful wide-open offenses at the University of Houston, now brings that over to Waco, where the Bears have not been on the plus side of the ledger since 1995. Briles actually has an embarrassment of riches at the quarterback spot. I like Blake Szymanski, who threw for 22 touchdowns last season. Now add to that mix the mobile freshman, Robert Griffin, and Kirby Freeman, a highly-touted schoolboy who started seven games for the Miami Hurricanes, and you are not going to be in tough shape at this position – even if you plan to use two of them in the same game, which is actually what Briles is talking about.

Briles obviously does not want to tip off his counterpart, the resourceful Wake Forest mentor, Jim Grobe, about what he is doing. But in terms of strategy, it isn't much of a secret, not when nine of the top ten receivers return, and when the rushing game was only 113th in the country last season. Jay Finley is the leading returning ground gainer, and he had just 207 yards in '07.

One interesting thing to note is that Baylor was last in the country in turnover margin last season, with a dismal minus-18. If they can turn that around, they will make some strides. Can they do it with the new offense, and against a fundamentally-sound team like Wake Forest?

Perhaps, because the Demon Deacons, a team that is solid in many areas, are not explosive enough offensively to put a lot of distance between themselves and other teams. What they have in their favor, if Baylor is still mistake-prone, is that they are unusually opportunistic, having scored ten touchdowns on defense and/or special teams last year.

Riley Skinner is extremely accurate (72.4%), but big plays are not his forte (12 TD's, 13 INT's). And his favorite receiver, Kenneth Moore (98 catches last year), has graduated, and that will put more of the burden on Josh Adams, who scored eleven touchdowns rushing in '07.

Wake Forest has covered seven of its last eight games, and holds a lot of the fundamental edges, including a +8 turnover ratio from last year. They will not waste scoring opportunities with Sam Swank, one of the nation's best, handling the kicking duties. And with nine defensive starters back, they are experienced and deep on that side of the ball. Some people say that when you have three quarterbacks, you really have NO quarterbacks. I don't know if that's the case with Baylor, but but juggling a trio during fall practice may not give one of them enough reps to get the hang of the offense right away.

With some caution, we'll lay the number with Wake Forest, the 13-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: WAKE FOREST -13 **

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