My March Madness Predictions

[Qbins Missile Crisis]

This year’s edition of March Madness is going to be one hell of a show. Forget about picking a Final Four – you could cobble together an Elite Eight of legitimate title contenders. But only one of those teams has been to the National Semifinals the last two years running.

Since the ol’ East Coast media bias is alive and well, allow me to clarify: We’re talking UCLA Bruins basketball here. They went 16-2 straight up in the Pacific-10 Conference, the second-best conference in Division I in terms of efficiency (behind only the Big 12). UCLA ended the regular season at 28-3 overall and 18-10-2 against the spread. Other teams have as good or better won-loss records, including the 29-2 North Carolina Tar Heels. But you wouldn’t go filling out your Tournament bracket based on that alone. Would you?

Try harnessing the predictive power of point differentials instead. They are the driving force behind the Pomeroy efficiency rankings that many of us have come to know and love. You can cherry-pick single games to argue the Bruins’ championship case – they’ve beaten Arizona by 22 points and Arizona State by 33 – or you can look to the Pomeroy rankings and see UCLA in the No. 2 spot, trailing the potent Kansas Jayhawks. North Carolina isn’t even the most efficient team in the ACC; that honor still goes to the Duke Blue Devils at No. 5 in the nation, one better than the Tar Heels.

So why am I not trumpeting Kansas as the 2008 national champions? The Jayhawks have been nothing short of terrific this year, thanks to the quick maturation of sophomore forward Darrell Arthur. But the ‘Hawks have the kind of flaws that figure to bite them in a short Tournament. Free-throw shooting is the biggest problem; Kansas only gets to the line on 25.7 percent of possessions (No. 163 in Division I) and shoots a poor 70.6 percent (No. 126).

Now check out the Bruins. They are taller than Kansas at just about every position on the floor, especially the wings. UCLA will dominate the paint and the perimeter should the Bruins meet the Jayhawks. And while North Carolina has the reputation of being the best rebounding team in the nation, that only applies on offense, whereas UCLA does windows at both ends of the court.

And why will the Bruins get over the hump this year? They’ve got a whole lotta Love. At 6-foot-10 and 271 pounds, freshman Kevin Love has been the difference-maker in the middle with 17.4 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Combined with point guard Darren Collison (50.7 percent from 3-point range), UCLA has two of the best players in the country at the two most crucial positions on the floor.

If that isn’t enough to convince you, I have two very inspirational words for you: John Wooden. Get well soon, Coach.



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