NCAA Tournament Round 1 Handicapping - Sportsbook.com

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Sportsbook.com - NCAAB: Handicapping the first round

The first round of the tournament can be the most exciting and we’ve got a handicapping system that has made big money in the past.

In order to pick winners in the first round , you need solid information. It’s often difficult to gain much of an edge since they seldom have played similar opponents and can have vastly different conference power ratings.

The question becomes what can I do to give myself the best chance to win over the first 32 games of the tournament?

What we at Statfox have done for the last 18 years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played from the morning of February 18 to present. This is the center piece of this system.

Whether you make in a spreadsheet or do the old school paper and pencil, this is what a matchup should look like in a hypothetical situation.

Kansas State 18-6 22-11 4-3 3rd 3rd lost in semis
W. Kentucky 21-5 27-6 6-1 1st 1st 1st

1. Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago vs. what they are now.
2. Determine what the difference is for their record over the last month.
3. Take their previous position in the league standings and once again compare them to what they were at the end of the regular season.
4. Compare how they finished in their conference tourney.

In this contest, we have a power conference team from the Big 12 in Kansas State, who despite some big victories this season, has been rather ordinary of late. Kansas State’s problems have revolved around the lack of consistent guard play, leaving Michael Beasley to carry the Wildcats.

They are playing Western Kentucky, a team that has sustained exceptional play all season and took care of business in Sun Belt postseason tournament. For Western Kentucky, they have three senior guards, which is a tremendous asset, especially come tournament time.

In this scenario, K-State is higher seed and favored to beat Hilltoppers, yet are only 3-8 against the spread in last 11 contests. Coincidently, Western Kentucky closed the season 5-0 and 7-3 ATS. Here we would have a live underdog playing extremely well, against a perceived power that seems to be slipping.

Here is another example. In this case, we have two bigger name teams.

Michigan State 20-5 25-8 5-3 2nd 4th lost in semis
Kentucky 13-10 20-12 8-2 4th 2nd lost in finals

The Spartans don’t look too bad record wise; however, they have slowly been slipping since the beginning of February.

Kentucky, on the other hand, has come on like gang-busters. Michigan State would be expected to be a smaller favorite, with the Wildcats having excellent potential with the points or as a money line play.

In the 18 years of using this system, we’ve had only three losing opening rounds, including last year, when it was chalk city.
Just like going through the FoxSheets on a daily basis, or reviewing the free material on the website, the hard work pays off because of what has been accomplished all year.

What this could do for you is turn a losing day into a profitable one, or take a good day and make it one you’ll never forget.

After careful study, here are the teams in the first round that fit this particular system: USC, Temple, BYU, San Diego, West Virginia and Xavier.

Each has a decisive edge over opponent and should be given consideration. Please understand this is not the sole reason to play any of these teams listed, just a solid track record of success from a rather simplistic system.